Lauge Risom Koch 
Vladimir Putin is facing increasing military and political pressure as Russian advances slow, Ukrainian strikes reach deeper into Russian territory and Western support for Kyiv remains strong.
Nearly four years after launching the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin faces mounting military, economic and political challenges. While current developments might normally encourage negotiations, the Kremlin’s internal logic may instead increase the risk of further escalation.
According to Onet, the Russian leader finds himself trapped between growing battlefield difficulties and the need to maintain an image of strength at home.
War reaches Russia
Onet reports that recent Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and infrastructure near Moscow have highlighted Russia’s vulnerability in a way rarely seen since the start of the war.
The attacks have undermined one of the Kremlin’s key narratives: that ordinary Russians would remain largely insulated from the consequences of the conflict.
At the same time, Russian military advances have slowed, while Ukraine has become increasingly effective at targeting logistics hubs, fuel depots and military infrastructure behind the front lines.
Kremlin hopes fading
According to Onet, Moscow had long counted on Western unity weakening over time, as well as on a reduction in military and political support for Kyiv.
Instead, the European Union recently extended sanctions against Russia for another year, while Ukraine continues to receive backing from its allies.
The report also notes that easing tensions in the Middle East could allow US attention to shift back toward Ukraine and Europe, potentially creating new challenges for the Kremlin.
Putin’s trap
Onet argues that Putin’s political system is built on a promise of stability, security and national strength.
Under those circumstances, admitting that Russia’s original war aims are unattainable would carry significant political risks. Any compromise could be interpreted as weakness by the public, political elites or nationalist figures within the system.
For that reason, the Kremlin may find it difficult to pursue negotiations even if military realities increasingly point in that direction.
Escalation risk
According to Onet, a direct confrontation with NATO remains unlikely, while the use of nuclear weapons is still viewed by most experts as improbable.
However, Russia could choose to intensify attacks on Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure and military targets, while expanding missile and drone campaigns.
As the costs of the war become more visible and pressure on the Kremlin grows, Putin may feel compelled to demonstrate that he remains firmly in control, even if doing so means escalating the conflict further.
Sources: Onet, CNN
