August M
Political honeymoons rarely last, especially when ambitious rivals eye the same prize.
Even a sitting second-in-command can discover how quickly momentum shifts when primary season approaches. As HuffPost reports, early numbers suggest that frontrunner status may be far softer than it appears.
A steep drop
Vice President JD Vance is watching his advantage shrink in a key state. HuffPost reported that CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Vance to watch out for Marco Rubio as the 2028 race tightens.
A new University of New Hampshire poll shows Vance slipping among local primary voters. In February, 53% of likely Republicans backed him. That support has now fallen to 36%.
Enten noted on air that support for Vance is “dropping like a rock” in the Granite State.
Meanwhile, Rubio is gaining ground fast. The Secretary of State jumped from 7% in February to 26% today.
Surge from behind
Enten noted that Rubio is “climbing up to Mount Washington” while closing in on Vance.
“Just in six months time, Marco Rubio has absolutely climbed out of the cellar right behind the vice president,” Enten emphasized.
The shift comes despite Vance’s recent book tour. Enten called the effort “one of the biggest pushes of his vice presidency in terms of PR.”
Still, the PR drive has failed to move the needle locally. “It doesn’t seem to be working in the Granite State,” Enten said.
Warnings from history
Vance’s 10 point lead over Rubio is unusually narrow for an incumbent vice president.
Al Gore held a 40 point lead ahead of 2000, yet faced a tough race. “He barely won in New Hampshire, right? He barely won over Bill Bradley,” Enten reminded viewers.
George H.W. Bush held a 26 point lead in 1988. “And of course, he had to come back and win New Hampshire after losing the Iowa caucuses,” Enten said.
Enten warned that Vance’s lead is unusually fragile. “So this lead is historically small,” he said. “You would expect a VP to be much more up in the early polls in New Hampshire, especially with a popular president within their own party. But that is not the case right now with JD Vance.”
Sources: HuffPost, CNN, University of New Hampshire
