Daniel Wolfram
A top advisor calls for unity in the Middle East after he predicts that the war in Iran will not end anytime soon.
Senior Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash warned this week that the ongoing Middle East conflict will be far longer and more complex than previously anticipated, calling on Gulf states to shift strategy and engage in direct security negotiations with Tehran.
Speaking with Al-Monitor Editor-in-Chief Joyce Karam at the UN General Assembly in New York, Gargash urged regional governments to stop relying solely on leaders in Washington to handle security talks with Iran.
A new mindset in the Middle East
In the interview, Gargash urged neighboring countries to step up and claim a direct seat in security talks. For too long, local states have stayed on the sidelines. He argued that Gulf governments must speak directly with Iran instead of relying solely on the leaders in Washington.
“We need a new mindset that these sorts of discussions […] can happen at an Iranian-American level, it should also take place at an Iranian-Arab level,” Gargash said in the interview with Al-Monitor Editor-in-Chief Joyce Karam.
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Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli strike, Gargash expects a chaotic transition under his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Predicting a long war
Gargash also predicts that the war between the US and Iran will continue for a longer period than than the US and Israel had first anticipated.
“What I see is a prolonged conflict, not necessarily in the same sort of tempo, because if we really look at the conflict from the last year of February towards March and onwards, the tempo’s changed, but the conflict itself has continued,” Gargash said.
Gargash also foresees a period of uncertainty in Iran with the new regime.
“It is understandable that in a time of crisis, the party that actually holds […] the gun or whatever is the dominant party,” Gargash said, referring to the Iranians.
Unity in the Gulf
When asked about the recent disagreements between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over Yemen and the Houthis who are engaged in conflict with the Saudis, Gargash downplayed the rumors of a rift between the nations.
But he also expressed regret that Gulf nations failed to build a unified position during the current war.
“The influence of the Arab world and regional states has been minimal in this war,” he admitted.
Upcoming elections in Israel
The top adviser was also asked about the upcoming election in Israel.
Here, Gargash raised concerns over Israeli policies in the West Bank and a possible right-wing escalation that could dominate the election and possibly derail peace efforts in Gaza.
He noted that the UAE supports Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza that Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected.
