Asger Risom
Ukraine warns Moscow’s latest ICBM launch is designed to intimidate NATO and sway U.S. policy before a critical phone call between the two presidents.
As efforts to halt the war in Ukraine stall, Moscow is preparing to stage what Ukrainian intelligence calls a calculated show of nuclear force.
According to a report by Wyborcza, Russia intends to launch an RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile late on Monday, May 19, in what Kyiv describes as nuclear blackmail directed at the West—particularly the United States.
A Signal to Trump?
The demonstration, which will reportedly involve a training warhead fired from a mobile platform in the Sverdlovsk region, is seen as part of a broader strategy to pressure the U.S. and NATO into softening their support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials argue the timing is no coincidence.
On the same day, President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a highly anticipated phone call with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The talks follow unsuccessful negotiations in Istanbul, where Moscow demanded unacceptable territorial concessions from Kyiv, including control over parts of Donbas that Russia doesn’t currently occupy.
Ukrainian intelligence believes the missile launch aims to influence Trump’s stance ahead of the call, where a potential ceasefire deal will be discussed.
Putin’s Conditions and Nuclear Posturing
Putin has made it clear in a recent interview broadcast on state TV that ending the war will require Ukraine and its allies to meet Russia’s terms.
These include vague demands for “long-term peace” and the security of Russian-speaking populations in occupied regions.
This isn’t the first time Moscow has flexed its missile capabilities for effect. Last year, Russia tested its new Oriesznik (Hazel) medium-range missile, whose conventional warheads reportedly traveled at speeds of Mach 11.
Meanwhile, airspace closures above the Kapustin Yar test range ahead of the Istanbul talks had already raised speculation about an imminent missile demonstration.
Western Response Expected
The launch, if it occurs, is expected to be more symbolic than strategic. But its implications for NATO and the European Union are real.
European capitals are bracing for heightened tensions as leaders assess whether the move is a bluff—or a signal that Putin intends to escalate if his demands are not met.
With Trump reportedly growing frustrated with Putin, Monday’s phone call could become a turning point—or deepen the stalemate. Either way, Moscow’s missile gambit ensures the conversation will be taking place under the shadow of nuclear brinkmanship.