Asger Risom
While protests and fear grip Tehran amid Israeli strikes, analyst Carmen Gavrilă says Iran’s fractured opposition and Trump’s unpredictability make regime change a remote prospect.
As Israel’s military campaign against Iran enters its sixth day, speculation is mounting over the future of the Islamic Republic.
But according to Middle East expert Carmen Gavrilă, despite unrest and mounting civilian frustration, there is little reason to believe the regime in Tehran is close to collapsing.
Confusion and Fear in Tehran
As reported by Digi24, Gavrilă described a climate of disinformation and distrust in the Iranian capital. Residents, she said, are overwhelmed by contradictory reports and feel abandoned by state authorities.
One stark example: authorities delayed opening metro stations as public shelters until three days after airstrikes began, exposing a lack of emergency preparedness.
“The people I spoke to no longer know what information to trust,” Gavrilă explained, noting that the Iranian government has largely failed to communicate protective measures effectively.
Disunity Undermines the Opposition
Despite hopes among some Iranians and diaspora activists, Gavrilă argued that the opposition lacks unity and a coherent alternative vision.
“Replacing something implies offering something else in its place, and that ‘something else’ doesn’t exist yet,” she said.
Even within the opposition, there are competing views—some pushing for complete regime overhaul, others preferring reform within the current Islamic Republic framework. This fragmentation makes coordinated resistance difficult and regime change even less likely.
Trump’s Mixed Signals and Regional Instability
Complicating the picture are recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. While he initially called for negotiations, he later demanded Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” and hinted at targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stating the U.S. knows his exact location.
“The situation is so volatile,” Gavrilă warned. “Declarations change constantly, and so do the military dynamics.”
With Washington deploying more fighter jets to the region and Trump’s rhetoric shifting by the day, uncertainty reigns both in Iran and on the world stage.
Yet Gavrilă remains cautious about predictions: the regime, she said, has weathered decades of wars and uprisings, and will not likely fall overnight.