Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
In fact, economically speaking, there is no doubt that continued support is the right choice.
A new assessment from Norway’s leading foreign-policy institute warns that Europe could face far-reaching financial and security pressures if Russia were to emerge victorious in the war in Ukraine.
The analysis comes amid renewed debate across Western capitals over the future of military and economic support for Kyiv.
The study, published by the Norwegian Institute of International Relations (NUPI) together with Statistics Norway (SSB) and the analytics firm Corisk, examines possible developments during the first four years following a hypothetical end to the conflict.
According to the authors, the implications of a Ukrainian defeat would extend well beyond the battlefield, placing heavy demands on European defense budgets, border protection, and humanitarian systems.
Costs for Norway and the wider region
NUPI’s projections suggest that Norway would face a significant increase in long-term spending if Russia secures its objectives.
The report estimates that Oslo alone could be required to commit funding equivalent to more than eight percent of its national output annually to strengthen defense, manage refugee arrivals, and respond to broader regional instability.
The authors note that such a shift would represent roughly double the country’s current level of spending in those areas.
Part of the projected rise stems from a potential new wave of refugees. The report anticipates that Norway alone might receive 100,000 to 150,000 additional Ukrainians in the years following a Russian victory — a development the researchers believe would require several billion euros per year in public expenditure.
European Union under pressure
The paper also outlines a scenario in which the European Union must sharply expand its security posture along its eastern and northern borders.
According to the assessment, modernizing defenses across those regions could cost the bloc several hundred billion euros.
The study further argues that Europe should be prepared for the arrival of as many as 10 million refugees if Ukraine’s resistance collapses.
Speaking to Poland’s PAP news agency, NUPI researcher Dr. Karsten Friis said the refugee response alone would surpass €950 billion within the first four years of a post-war period.
“The EU would have to be ready to accept up to 10 million refugees,” he told PAP.
Continued support would cost half as much
Dr. Friis also emphasized that maintaining present-day assistance to Ukraine remains substantially cheaper than managing the consequences of a Russian victory.
In the PAP interview, he said that ongoing support for Ukrainian defense efforts amounts to roughly €340 billion, while rebuilding the country’s security capabilities would require approximately €550 billion.
Only half of what a Russian victory could cost.
A warning against delay
The report’s authors caution that hesitating or limiting support increases the likelihood of a long-term outcome that would be far more costly for Europe.
They argue that a strategy combining military assistance, political backing, and capacity-building remains the most financially and strategically viable option for European governments.
Sources: NUPI; Statistics Norway (SSB); Corisk; PAP
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation
