Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
However, he does not believe that the war could be ended before the new year begins.
A fresh assessment from Finland’s president has injected a new dose of realism into expectations surrounding the war in Ukraine.
His remarks came during a joint appearance with NATO’s chief in Brussels earlier this week, where questions about the conflict’s trajectory dominated the discussion.
While leaders continue to weigh political and military options, the timeline for diplomacy remains uncertain.
Behind the scenes, calculations in Kyiv, Moscow and across Europe appear to be driving expectations for when talks might restart.
Possible timeline
According to Digi24, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told reporters that he sees no prospect of peace negotiations in the coming months.
During a news conference at NATO headquarters with Secretary General Mark Rutte, he said: “I am usually optimistic, but now I do not expect the conflict to end this year. I think the negotiations will not take place earlier than February-March next year.”
He offered no detailed reasoning for selecting that timeframe, noting only that the outlook would “depend on Zelensky.”
His comments highlighted how political dynamics in Kyiv continue to shape expectations across Europe.
According to Reuters, earlier assessments by the European Commission, Ukraine’s projected needs for sustaining its military effort into 2026 amount to 51.6 billion euros, underscoring the scale of support required for a prolonged confrontation.
Signals from Moscow
On the Russian side, officials have again pointed to Istanbul as a potential venue for diplomatic engagement.
Citing the Izvestia newspaper, Russian tate-run agency TASS reported, that Russian Foreign Ministry representative said Moscow is prepared to resume peace talks there.
The last direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place on July 23 in Istanbul, and no comparable face-to-face encounter has happened since. The absence of dialogue has further complicated the search for a political solution.
Regional expectations
Stubb’s remarks reflect a wider concern among European leaders that battlefield conditions and political constraints may delay meaningful negotiations. Diplomats across the continent have repeatedly warned that even preliminary talks would require shifts in the positions of both Kyiv and Moscow.
For now, all sides appear to be bracing for another year of military and political pressure, with diplomacy pushed further down the road.
Sources: Reuters, TASS, European Commission
