Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It’s further West – and a nation that is not a member of NATO.
For years, military analysts and experts have warned that a possible Russian assault on Europe could happen sooner, than we thought.
In fact, the German Foreign minister, Johann Wadephul warned Tuesday, that Russia could be ready for an attack on a NATO-country as early as 2029.
NATO and EU is in a race against time to ramp up their defensive capabilities, but if Russia was to attack a European NATO-member (something Russia has continuedly denied intentions of), a big question remains:
What nation would be Russia’s first target?
The Batlics are not the most likely targets
The Batlic Nations (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) have been mentioned as possible sites for a first Russian strike on Europe.
However, according to the Financial Times, several European naval officers warned to several European naval officers, we should be careful not to get our eyes fixed on the continent’s Eastern flank.
In fact, they believe a Russian assault is more likely to start further west in Europe – and not even on the mainland.
Russian ships off the coast of Ireland
FT cites several European naval officers for warning that Ireland is probably the weakest link in Europe’s defense.
Ireland’s position on Europe’s western flank has made it a vital hub for transatlantic communications, with most Northern Hemisphere cables crossing its maritime zone.
A coordinated attack, experts say, could disrupt markets and cut power or connectivity for millions as well as make it borderline impossible for NATO and Europe to communicate and coordinate.
Ireland is not a member of NATO.
Former MP and special forces commander Cathal Berry told the FT: “We have big tech, pharmaceutical and data management companies here in Ireland… if you wanted to constrain the European Union, to strike at the European Union without fear of a NATO response, then Ireland is ground zero.”
Additionally, Ireland does not have any naval forces, and hasn’t had any since 1946.
Today, the Irish navy only has four operational ships out of eight total, Digi24 reports.
“Virtually zero” defensive ability
Retired naval commander Caoimhin Mac Unfraidh told FT, Ireland’s ability to defend undersea systems is “virtually zero.”
Although Dublin plans a record €1.5bn defense budget next year, spending remains the lowest in the EU relative to GDP.
British officials have also voiced unease, with Defence Secretary John Healey cautioning that London has “military options ready” should Russian naval movements escalate.
Before Russia’s 2021 cyberattack on Ireland’s health service, former minister Ossian Smyth said many believed the country too remote and harmless to be targeted.
Sources: Financial Times, NPR, Digi24, Anadolu Ajansi
