Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the German documents, the Russian cyberattacks, sabotage attempts and disinformation campaigns could be a prelude for a military confrontation.
A newly reported military assessment has raised fresh concerns in Berlin about unseen threats building beneath the surface.
Reports of the blueprint was first brought by Politico, who says the outlet has seen the documents itself.
Its findings suggest a long-term strategy rather than isolated incidents, according to media coverage.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), several Western media reported in late December 2025 and early January 2026 that a German military document outlines an increase in covert Russian actions targeting German infrastructure.
Note that the leaked documents have not been independently verified.
What do they say?
According to Poltico, the assessment describes recent Russian cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformations campaigns as possible preparatory steps for a future confrontation between Russia and NATO.
The document reportedly identifies cyber operations and influence campaigns as central elements of this approach, framing them as groundwork for a possible military clash rather than standalone activities.
German planners are said to view these actions as part of a broader pattern designed to weaken resilience and readiness ahead of any open conflict.
Why Germany matters
According to ISW, the document notes that Germany expects to be an early focus in a crisis because of its role as a NATO logistical hub.
Western outlets reported that the document forecasts Germany would be seen as a key target for long-range missile strikes, armed drones, and special forces following any overt Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank.
These risks are linked directly to Germany’s importance in moving and sustaining allied forces across Europe.
Looking toward 2029
The assessment reportedly concludes that Russia could develop the necessary capabilities and “strategic options” by 2029 at the latest, even if the war in Ukraine continues without major change.
ISW said this timeline aligns with the thinktanks own view that Russia could threaten NATO sooner than many Western estimates suggest, particularly if a ceasefire in Ukraine allows Moscow to rebuild forces.
ISW has described covert actions against infrastructure as part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign, aimed at shaping information and psychological conditions before open conflict.
Sources: Politico, Institute for the Study of War, Bloomberg, Die Welt
