Camilla Jessen
The world’s most vulnerable oil importers as Hormuz traffic collapses.
Three weeks into the U.S.-Iran war, the global oil market is being strained by severe disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.
Tanker traffic has fallen sharply, and prices have surged above $100 a barrel.
A Forbes analysis, citing Société Générale’s commodities team, says the countries most exposed are those heavily dependent on Hormuz-linked imports but holding relatively limited inventories.
Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines are described as the most vulnerable, sourcing more than 80% of their oil through shipments tied to Hormuz and holding roughly one month of cover before they would need replacement supplies.
Singapore, which receives about 680,000 barrels per day through the route, has around 40 days of cover, while Thailand has about 50 days for roughly 400,000 barrels per day.
Other exposed states
Taiwan imports about 525,000 barrels per day and has roughly 100 days of cover, according to the same Forbes report. Bangladesh is in a similar range and has already begun fuel rationing, the report said.
Larger Asian economies have bigger buffers, but their exposure is still substantial.
South Korea imports around 3 million barrels per day, with roughly 2 million tied to Hormuz, and has enough stocks for about 50 days without imports, or roughly 70 days for Hormuz-only disruption.
India, which relies heavily on Gulf crude, has a 175-million-barrel strategic petroleum reserve, Forbes reported.
Indonesia could manage for around 160 days if the disruption continues, Japan for about 200 days, and China for roughly 300 days. Analyst Lloyd Byrne of Jefferies told Forbes that China has built stronger “shock absorbers” through diversified supply, domestic output and large inventories.
U.S. outlook
The U.S. is less exposed to physical shortages than Asia because of domestic production.
Baker Hughes’ latest count showed 553 active U.S. rigs, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts domestic crude output will average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, rising to 13.8 million in 2027.
Sources: Forbes, Société Générale, BBC, IEA, AP, Baker Hughes, EIA
