August M
Early signs of the next US presidential contest are beginning to emerge.
New polling suggests one familiar name is already dominating the field.
According to Caliber, citing a Harvard/Harris survey, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a clear lead in initial polling for the 2028 Democratic primary, securing 50% support among respondents.
The survey, conducted between April 23 and 26 among 2,745 registered voters, shows a steady rise in her backing compared with earlier months.
Clear advantage
Harris’s support has increased from 41% in March and 39% earlier in the year, indicating growing momentum.
Her closest rival in the poll, California Governor Gavin Newsom, trails significantly at 22%. Other potential contenders, including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, remain in single digits.
Analysts say the gap highlights Harris’s early dominance, though the race remains in its early stages.
Expert views
“These results, should they continue, can help Harris in getting campaign contributions, and this becomes a further indication of Harris’ strength as a candidate,” said Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University.
He added that her visibility plays a key role in shaping voter preferences.
However, Michael Bailey of Georgetown University offered a more cautious assessment, suggesting that recognition may be inflating her numbers.
“She has a fairly low probability of being the nominee in the betting markets, which [in theory, at least] try to think through how strong her support would really be in a competitive primary,” he said.
Mixed signals
Despite leading the poll, Harris’s chances in prediction markets remain below 10%, according to figures cited by Caliber.
This contrast points to uncertainty about how early polling translates into actual primary outcomes.
Experts note that voter sentiment can shift significantly once campaigns formally begin.
Testing the waters
Harris has recently appeared in key states such as Michigan and South Carolina, signalling potential campaign groundwork.
At a recent event, she acknowledged the possibility of another presidential run.
“I might. I am thinking about it,” she said when asked about 2028.
“I served for four years, being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States,” Harris added, outlining her experience in high-level decision-making roles.
The early polling places her at the centre of attention, but the Democratic field is still expected to evolve in the coming years.
Sources: Caliber, Harvard/Harris Poll
