Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
How is the Kremlin going to spin those numbers?
Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine has claimed that Russian advances on the battlefield have been steadily declining, and independent battlefield data seems to support those claims.
On March 31, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a report showing that in January 2026, Russian territorial gains in Ukraine were approximately km².
In February, that number had dropped to a third of that (126 km²), and in March, Russian advances were as small as 33 km².
But now, the Russian struggles in Ukraine have really taken a turn. The battlefield data for April is in, and according to the ISW, Russian “advances” are now completely gone.
In fact, they are losing triple-digit km².
A shrinking footprint
According to the ISW May 2 update on the war, Russian forces experienced a clear net loss of controlled land during April 2026.
The research group estimates that the military lost control of roughly 116 square kilometres throughout the month.
This figure marks a significant shift from previous months, reflecting a steady drop in overall momentum that began late last year. In fact, ISW reports that Russia has not lost this much territory since the Ukrainian inscursion in the Kursk Oblast in August 2024.
Mud and modern problems
Several factors are driving this slowdown, ranging from high-tech disruptions to traditional seasonal challenges.
The ISW notes that Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strikes have complicated operations.
Connectivity issues have plagued the front lines, fueled by a block on Starlink terminals and limitations on the Telegram app.
Then comes the weather, as the notorious spring mud season has historically bogged down heavy machinery and prevented rapid movements.
The infiltration illusion
While the overall pace of capturing new territory has dropped dramatically compared to the start of 2025, comparing the two years is tricky.
Russian units have increasingly relied on sending small groups to infiltrate contested areas, rather than launching major assaults to secure full control.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests this tactic is partly designed to project an image of constant forward movement.
However, the advancing troops do not hold the ground, and the Institute for the Study of War reports they are often located among Ukrainian positions in contested “gray zones.”
Counting the real cost
Because mapping brief incursions requires less hard evidence than confirming permanently held territory, visual gains can easily appear larger than reality.
Even when an infiltration squad is completely wiped out by defending forces, the specific area might still be logged as temporarily infiltrated.
Ultimately, the actual seized territory over the last six months remains notably lower than the area claimed through these fleeting raids.
The coming summer months will test whether drying ground allows for a return to traditional advances or if the struggles persist.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Digi24, United24Media
