As Russia gears up for its presidential elections scheduled for March 17, 2024, British intelligence analysts are already predicting the outcome and its implications.
Vladimir Putin, who has yet to officially launch his campaign, is expected to not only win but also to consolidate his power further. This will be followed by a renewed focus on military activities, particularly in Ukraine.
According to British intelligence, the 2024 Russian presidential election is essentially a done deal. Putin hasn't even started his campaign or made any public statements, yet there's little doubt that he will secure another term.
The Russian populace, it seems, holds their president in high regard, making it likely that Putin could win without any electoral manipulation, although the capability for such manipulation exists.
In the months leading up to the election, Putin's administration is expected to maintain a low profile, avoiding any controversial moves.
The aim is to ensure a smooth electoral process, minimizing the need for any manipulation at the polls. British intelligence believes that this period will be marked by a sense of ease within Russian society, as Putin's team focuses on securing votes.
Once the election is over, Putin's agenda for his next term is twofold: to strengthen his grip on power within Russia and to intensify efforts in the ongoing war in Ukraine. British intelligence analysts are confident that Putin will use his renewed mandate to implement these objectives.
After the winter break, when military activities are usually at a standstill due to weather conditions, intelligence experts predict a surge in mobilization. This will coincide with increased dynamics on the Ukrainian front, as Russia refrains from making any unpopular political decisions before the election.
The British intelligence assessment paints a picture of a Russia under Putin that is set to continue its current trajectory, with a focus on consolidating power and military ambitions.