China's Strategy for Taking Taiwan Without Force

Written by Henrik Rothen

Jun.22 - 2024 8:46 PM CET

China may achieve control over Taiwan through strategic isolation without resorting to military invasion.

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China has long sought the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, but achieving this goal may not necessitate a military invasion.

ccording to a CNN report, China has alternative methods at its disposal to compel Taiwan into submission.

Economic and Strategic Isolation

The Chinese Communist regime can pressure Taiwan through economic and strategic means, significantly undermining the island's autonomy.

A recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that China could isolate Taiwan, crippling its economy without direct military conflict. This approach might be just as effective as a full-scale invasion.

"China’s military can isolate Taiwan, paralyze its economy, and force the democratic island to submit to Beijing’s ruling Communist Party without ever firing a shot," CNN reports, based on the CSIS findings.

A Third Option: Quarantine

While previous discussions have often centered on scenarios involving a full-scale invasion or a military blockade, CSIS suggests a third, more subtle strategy: quarantine. This would involve cutting off Taiwan from essential supplies and global trade routes, making it difficult for countries like the United States to intervene effectively.

The quarantine could involve blocking access to Taiwan's ports and halting shipments of crucial resources like energy. Such actions fall into what is known as "grey zone tactics," which are aggressive yet stop short of open warfare.

The Role of Grey Zone Tactics

Grey zone tactics are concerning for many international observers. These tactics allow China to exert pressure without crossing the threshold into clear acts of war, thus complicating potential responses from Taiwan's allies.

The fear is that such an approach would gradually wear down Taiwan’s resistance, leading to its eventual submission to Beijing's demands.

The analysis underscores that the Chinese military would play a secondary role in this strategy, focusing more on enforcing the quarantine rather than engaging in direct conflict.

This subtle yet powerful form of pressure could bring Taiwan under China’s control without the devastating consequences of war.

By leveraging economic and strategic isolation, China may achieve its long-term goal of reunification with Taiwan, showcasing a calculated approach to one of the most contentious geopolitical issues in East Asia.