The timeline for a possible war between NATO and Russia has been forecasted by Denmark's Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. According to him, a military conflict could start within the next three to five years, as quoted by Reuters.
"We cannot exclude that within three to five years, Russia will test NATO's Article 5 and the alliance's solidarity," said Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark's Defense Minister. He was referring to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack on one or several member countries in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack on all of them.
The minister noted that Russia has increased its military production capacity, leading Denmark to consider increasing investments in this sector. He added that he does not see threats to his country, but the alliance could face hybrid attacks from Russia. "There is genuine cause for concern," he concluded.
Since the beginning of 2024, NATO has repeatedly called for preparations for a war with Russia. Estonian Prime Minister Kallas mentioned the same timeline for a possible conflict in January. She noted that the Baltic countries, which Moscow views as a "vulnerable part" of the alliance, should especially prepare for conflict with Russia.
This reassessment of the threat level followed similar warnings issued by other European NATO countries in recent weeks, according to Reuters. For instance, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated in January that the alliance should prepare for a Russian attack on a NATO country within the next five to eight years.
"We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day, lately again targeting our friends in the Baltic countries. Therefore, we must consider that Russia might one day attack even a NATO country," said Boris Pistorius, head of the German Ministry of Defense.
Meanwhile, the tabloid Bild, citing a supposed secret Bundeswehr document, reported that Germany is developing a war plan between NATO and Russia, which, according to the scenario of the German Ministry of Defense, could start in the summer of 2025. The Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region is mentioned as the most likely conflict zone.
At the same time, the Chairman of NATO's Military Committee Rob Bauer spoke about preparing for a conflict with Russia in the next twenty years. He emphasized that preparation for conflict implies the "ability to rely on the industrial base" due to the need to produce ammunition and weapons quickly. He also highlighted the possibility of reintroducing conscription.