In a recent revelation by the German newspaper Bild, the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, are reportedly gearing up for a possible hybrid attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank. This anticipated offensive could commence as early as February 2024, as per a classified document from the German Federal Ministry of Defence.
The document, marked "Top Secret – For Official Use Only," outlines a detailed scenario named "Alliance Defence 2025." It predicts a series of events starting in February 2024, where Russia is expected to initiate another wave of mobilization, drafting an additional 200,000 individuals into its army. This move is set to precede a spring offensive against Ukraine, pushing the Ukrainian forces back by June.
The scenario escalates in July with Russia's transition from covert to increasingly overt attacks against Western interests, particularly targeting the Baltic states with cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare. These actions are anticipated to provoke clashes, which Russia could use as a pretext for large-scale military exercises on its territory and in Belarus.
A significant escalation is projected for October when Russia might deploy troops and medium-range missiles to the strategically important region of Kaliningrad. From December 2024 onwards, the scenario foresees an artificially induced "border conflict" and "clashes with numerous casualties" in the vicinity of the Suwałki Gap, a critical corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
In a concerning development, the scenario suggests that Russia, with Belarusian support, could replicate its 2014 invasion tactics used in Ukraine but this time on NATO territory. This is speculated to occur at a time when the United States might be politically vulnerable due to the presidential election transition.
In response to these developments, NATO is expected to decide on containment measures by May 2025. On D-Day, the alliance plans to deploy a significant force of 300,000 military personnel to the eastern flank, including a contingent of 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr. The scenario concludes 30 days after D-Day, leaving the outcome of whether NATO will successfully restrain Russia an open question.
This report from Bild reflects the growing apprehension within NATO regarding Russia's intentions and capabilities. The detailed planning and preparation underscore the seriousness with which NATO is taking the potential threat posed by Russia, indicating a heightened state of readiness and strategic foresight in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions.
