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He is certain that Russia will test NATO’s Article 5 about collective defense – and he also explains how Russia could do it.
He is certain that Russia will test NATO’s Article 5 about collective defense – and he also explains how Russia could do it.
What is happening?
Germany’s foreign intelligence chief, Bruno Kahl, said in an interview med Table Media, that they have intelligence showing that Russias war in Ukraine is only a step on a journey westward.
Confrontations short of full war
Kahl further explained that Russian officials, which he refused to name, are invisioning a confrontiation between Russia and NATO that falls short of a full military engagement.
This would test the NATO Article 5 and proof if the US is really going to live up to it’s obligations.
Determined to test NATO
Kahl explained that his agency has clear intelligence indications that Russian officials believe that the collective defence obligations of NATO no longer has practical force – and that Russia is determined to put it to a test.
And he has an idea of how Russia could do it.
Little green men
“They (Russia) don’t need to dispatch armies of tanks for that. It’s enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect the supposedly oppressed Russian minorities,” Kahl said in the podcast interview.
Using the Crimean playbook
When Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula in 2014, it involved Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms and civilian clothes taking control of buildings and offices.
They became known as “little green men” initially, when Moscow denied that they were in fact Russian forces.
The Revolution of Dignity
When Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, there was a relative power vacuum on the peninsula following the Revolution of Dignity.
The revolution took place all over Ukraine and ousted the sitting pro-Russian President, Victor Yanukovych.
“Return Crimea to Russia”
Following the revolution, both pro-Russian and anti-seperatist demonstrations took place on Crimea, and at the same time, Vladimir Putin told his security officer to “return Crimea to Russia”.
TikTok’ers spreading Russian propaganda
Last month, the media Propastop uncovered a number of pro-Russian Estonian TikTok-profiles spreading Russian propaganda, increasing the fear of an upcoming Russian operation.
Pro-Moscow plot uncovered
In 2022, Estonian authorities said that they had uncovered a plot, where a rpo-Moscow politian, backed by Russian military intelligence, was to create a paramilitary unit aimed at overthrowing the Estonian government.
Don’t expect tanks
Kahl explained that we should not expect Russian tanks to roll over NATO borders, but that less effort from Russia would be enough to test NATO’s Article 5 about mutual defence.