Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
If the reports are correct, the strikes will hit Iran, increasing the risk of a full-scale war in the region.
If the reports are correct, the strikes will hit Iran, increasing the risk of a full-scale war in the region.
What is happening?
New intelligence suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilites, US officials told CNN.
Trouble for Trump
If the intelligence is correct, and Israel really is going to hit Iranian nuclear facilities, it could become a huge problem for Donald Trump, as he is trying to secure a diplomatic deal with the Iranian leadership.
Risk of full-scale war
It is important to note, that while Israel seems to be preparing for a strike, nothing has been confirmed.
If Israel do strike Iran, it could increase the risk of a full-scale war in the region, which the US has tried to acoid since the war in Gaza froke out in late 2023.
US negotiations can be crucial
According to CNN, there is disagreement within the US government on whether Israel will eventually hit Iran.
It seems that the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program will be crucial in this sense, as Israels actions will ultimately be influenced by the results of the negotiations.
Chances has “gone up”
According to an unnamed source, the chances of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up “significantly” in recent months
The Iranian uranium
One of the important parts of the US-Iranian negotiations is the Iranian uranium.
According to CNN, the source say that if the deal does not remove all of the Iranian uranium, it will make the chance of a strike “more likely”.
Air munitions and exercises
The US has alegedly observed movement of air munitions as well as completion of Israeli air exercises, two sources told CNN.
Could be pressure tactics
There is another possibility, however.
Israel might use the exercises and moving of munition to pressure Iran by signalling the Israeli capability to hit Iran if Teheran does not step back from key principles of the nuclear program
A weakened Iran
In October, Israeli forces bombed Iranian missile production facilities as well as air defences.
Add to that the crumbling Iranian economy due to international sanctions, and we have an Iran in its weakest military position in decades.
Will need US assistance
A source familiar with the matter told CNN, that Israel would need US assistance to actually destroy the Iranian nuclear program, meaning Israel will need to please Trump and not act on their own without coordinating with the US.