Asger Risom
Despite Israel’s high-precision strikes, experts warn that only a full-scale invasion or direct U.S. military involvement could dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and topple its regime.
As Israel intensifies its air campaign against Iran, a new analysis casts serious doubt on the country’s ability to achieve its military objectives without ground forces or substantial American support.
According to a report published by Foreign Affairs, Israel’s reliance on airstrikes and intelligence operations may bring short-term tactical wins, but not strategic success.
Three Obstacles to Stopping Iran’s Nuclear Program
The report outlines three major challenges for Israel. First, many key Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordo, are deeply buried underground — well beyond the reach of conventional munitions.
Even with U.S.-supplied bunker-buster bombs, complete destruction remains doubtful.
Second, striking the Bushehr nuclear reactor could trigger a radioactive disaster, risking civilian lives across the Gulf region. Any attack on the facility also risks Iranian retaliation on Israel’s own nuclear site at Dimona.
Third, there’s no clear understanding of Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpiles, raising fears that the program could quietly continue regardless of air campaign damage.
No Precedent for Toppling a Regime by Air Alone
Israel aims not only to derail Iran’s nuclear capabilities but also to undermine the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
However, historical precedent offers little support for that ambition. From Libya and Iraq to Chechnya, airstrikes alone have rarely resulted in regime change.
Without U.S. intervention, or a highly unlikely Israeli ground invasion, analysts argue Israel may only succeed in hardening Iran’s resolve and escalating civilian suffering.
Growing Civilian Toll as “War of Cities” Deepens
The ongoing “war of cities” between Tel Aviv and Tehran has increasingly targeted urban centers, exacerbating civilian casualties. Foreign Affairs warns that without a decisive shift in strategy, Israel risks empowering a more radical and dangerous adversary—while failing to achieve its core military goals.