Kathrine Frich
The political balancing act comes as rising oil prices pressure American households.
Elections have a way of changing how leaders speak about foreign trouble.
When military operations drag on past initial promises, officials often pivot their language to reassure nervous voters.
Words matter now
With congressional midterms fast approaching, Vice President JD Vance tried to soften the framing of ongoing military actions in the Middle East.
According to the Associated Press, Vance refused to label the six-month conflict with Iran as a full conflict.
Speaking at a White House press briefing, Vance downplayed the violence despite fresh Iranian strikes against American allies in the region. “I wouldn’t call it a war,” Vance stated, adding that “Right now, there is no active shooting.”
Vance declined to set firm dates when pressed. “But when you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he remarked. He added, “I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians.”
Trouble at sea
The political balancing act comes as rising oil prices pressure American households. While the White House claims Navy escorts have restored shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, independent tracking firms paint a different picture.
Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed daily ship transits remain far below normal levels. At the same time, TankerTrackers.com cited by Huffpost reported that daily oil flow through the critical waterway averages roughly five million barrels, down significantly from pre-conflict numbers.
Analysts believe the administration is managing public expectations to prevent energy price spikes before voters hit the polls.
Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities told the AP that “The administration is still jawboning oil markets.”
She added that “they appear to be doing it again to keep prices from going too high, so that they can extend the timeline before there’s a worse price spike.”
Holding the line
The White House appears stuck in a delicate holding pattern. Former official Richard Goldberg noted,
“I find it hard to believe the president would agree to anything that hands back any modicum of IRGC control over the strait that has been wrested away,” as reported by the AP.
Foreign policy expert Aaron David Miller told the AP that Iran is unlikely to “let Trump out of the box” anytime soon.
Miller explained that “The White House doesn’t want a massive war, and they don’t want to be seen as offering massive concessions.” According to Miller, “The tack they are taking avoids both of those things.”
Sources: Huffpost, AP, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, TankerTrackers.com
