The U.S. Census Bureau's latest projections indicate a significant demographic shift, with Latinos expected to make up over one in four Americans by 2060.
Currently, Hispanics constitute 19.1% of the U.S. population but are projected to grow to 26.9% in the next four decades. This increase contrasts with the anticipated decline of the non-Hispanic white population from 58.9% to 44.9% by 2060.
The overall U.S. population is also projected to grow, rising from today's 333 million to nearly 370 million in 2080, before slightly dipping to 366 million by 2100.
These projections, updated from 2017 estimates, account for changes in birth rates, death rates, and international migration, and indicate a slower pace of population growth than previously expected.
Sandra Johnson, a Census Bureau demographer, noted that the U.S. has seen significant shifts in population change components over the last five years.
Factors like increased mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing declines in fertility rates are influencing these trends.
The Census Bureau's projections are based on four scenarios, considering varying levels of immigration. In every scenario, the U.S. is expected to experience more deaths than births, with immigration projected as the primary contributor to population growth.
The high immigration scenario suggests the U.S. population could reach 435 million by 2100, while the most likely projections peak at 370 million in 2080 and then decline.
This demographic shift underscores the growing influence of the Latino population in the United States and highlights the importance of immigration in shaping the country's future population trends.
