Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The big question is, if NATO is ready.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the NATO-bloc has been in a race against time to increase it’s defensive capabilities out of fear that Putin won’t stop with Ukraine.
Earlier this year, the NATO-nations agreed to increase the defensive spending to 5 % of GDP from the previous target of 2 %, and since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, NATO has gotten two new members in the form of Finland and Sweden.
Russia has repeatedly denied having any ambitions about attacking NATO, but given the situation in Ukraine, basically no-one in the West trust those claims.
The big question is, if NATO will be ble to hold off a Russian attack, if Putin decides to move beyond Ukraine – and according to leaked information cited by the German newspaper BILD, we might want to ramp up defensive efforts.
Disgussing a Russian strike on NATO
According to Latvijas Avīze, a closed meeting taking place in Vilnius, Lithuania, earlier this week, discussed a scenario, in which Russia decides to attack NATO’s eastern front.
And according to BILD, which cited attendees of the confidential meeting, several participants argued that the alliance must brace for difficult years ahead.
One high-ranking military officer was quoted by BILD as telling the group: “It’s no longer a question of whether Russia will attack NATO, but when.”
Those comments, according to the outlet, came alongside observations that Ukraine’s continued resistance is buying NATO governments crucial time to reinforce their own defenses.
Production lacking
Specialists at the event reportedly underscored the pace at which the Kremlin can convert its economy into wartime production.
They contrasted that with Western manufacturers, which they described as slower and geared toward precision rather than output.
Attendees told BILD that Russia’s defense spending currently functions more efficiently than that of many Western states.
One expert warned that “many of the high-tech weapons ordered will only arrive in the West after a Russian attack has probably already taken place,” highlighting concerns about procurement delays.
In June 2025, US President Donald Trump has previously cast doubt on whether the US will honor the NATO Article 5 – the Musketeer Oath – stating that an attack on a NATO-country is an attack on the entire bloc.
Broader warnings
Poland’s top military officer, General Wiesław Kukula, has previously cautioned that Russia is shaping conditions for potential aggression against Europe.
Polish media reported him as saying that Moscow could rely on cyberattacks and sabotage to destabilize its neighbours ahead of any direct confrontation.
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has also voiced concerns, noting earlier that Russia might be capable of targeting NATO states before 2029.
He stressed, however, that the alliance retains the means to defend itself.
Sources: BILD, Latvijas Avīze
