March Sees a Dip in Russian Casualties in Ukraine, Says UK Defense Review

Written by Camilla Jessen

Apr.08 - 2024 8:00 AM CET

Amid a period of tactical recalibration and reduced offensive operations, Russia's military casualties in Ukraine see a notable decrease, as observed by British intelligence analysis.

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In a recent assessment by the British Ministry of Defense, a noticeable dip in the daily casualties suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine was reported for March 2024.

According to the intelligence review, the daily average of Russian troops killed and wounded dropped by 74 individuals to 913 casualties per day. This decrease in battlefield losses comes alongside a reduction in the volume of attacks executed by Russian forces throughout the month.

Analysts believe this downtrend in Russian offensive operations and consequent casualties can be attributed to several factors, including a strategic pause for rest and re-equipment following the capture of Avdiyivka. There appears to have been a deliberate effort to mitigate reported casualties during Russia's March elections, suggesting a political dimension to the operational slowdown.

Since the onset of the invasion in February 2022, Russian forces have averaged 658 casualties daily. The average daily casualty rate has escalated annually, from 400 in 2022 to 693 in 2023, and peaking at 913 in the first quarter of 2024. This incremental rise in losses underscores Russia's continued reliance on deploying mass forces to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, a strategy that has evidently borne a significant toll on its military personnel.

Despite the recent decrease, the broader trend indicates an increasing reliance on mass assaults, raising concerns about the conflict's future trajectory. Concurrently, Estonian intelligence projections suggest a looming escalation in the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine, further complicating the regional security landscape.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has outlined two potential scenarios for the conflict's progression, which hinge on the Alliance's unity and capacity to support Kyiv effectively.

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