Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Intelligence reports suggest Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilitiets, and the price of oil instantly reacted.
Intelligence reports suggest Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilitiets, and the price of oil instantly reacted.
What is happening?
New intelligence suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilites, US officials told CNN.
Oil prices going up
The news instantly made oil prices rise, as a growing fear of a full-scale war in the Middle East could disrupt global oil production.
On Wednesday, oil prices has gone up by 1 %.
Region key supplier of oil
According to Reuters, ING commedities strategists say that “such an escalation would not only put Iranian supply at risk, but also in large parts of the broader region.”
Third-largest OPEC-country
Iran is the third-largest producer of oil among the Organizaion of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
United Arab Emirates is the largest supplier, with Iraq coming in 2nd on the list.
Iran could target oil tanker flow
According to Reuters, there are also concerns that Iran could retaliate an Israeli strike by blocking oil tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
The choke point is used by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to export fuel and crude oil.
Risk of full-scale war
It is important to note, that while Israel seems to be preparing for a strike, nothing has been confirmed.
If Israel do strike Iran, it could increase the risk of a full-scale war in the region, which the US has tried to acoid since the war in Gaza froke out in late 2023.
US negotiations can be crucial
According to CNN, there is disagreement within the US government on whether Israel will eventually hit Iran.
It seems that the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program will be crucial in this sense, as Israels actions will ultimately be influenced by the results of the negotiations.
Chances has “gone up”
According to an unnamed source, the chances of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up “significantly” in recent months
The Iranian uranium
One of the important parts of the US-Iranian negotiations is the Iranian uranium.
According to CNN, the source say that if the deal does not remove all of the Iranian uranium, it will make the chance of a strike “more likely”.
Air munitions and exercises
The US has alegedly observed movement of air munitions as well as completion of Israeli air exercises, two sources told CNN.
Could be pressure tactics
There is another possibility, however.
Israel might use the exercises and moving of munition to pressure Iran by signalling the Israeli capability to hit Iran if Teheran does not step back from key principles of the nuclear program
A weakened Iran
In October, Israeli forces bombed Iranian missile production facilities as well as air defences.
Add to that the crumbling Iranian economy due to international sanctions, and we have an Iran in its weakest military position in decades.
Will need US assistance
A source familiar with the matter told CNN, that Israel would need US assistance to actually destroy the Iranian nuclear program, meaning Israel will need to please Trump and not act on their own without coordinating with the US.