Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian oil export revenue almost doubled from February to March.
Imagine getting a surprise bonus at work, only to realize it barely covers your mounting daily debts.
Financial pressure is incredibly hard to escape when the underlying foundation is broken.
A very similar scenario is happening right now — the scale is much larger, as we are talking about the economy of an entire country.
A temporary boost
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, global oil prices have been climbing, handing the Russian government an unexpected financial lifeline during a difficult period.
In an interview with the Russian news agency TASS, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently said that the federal budget expects an extra 200 billion rubles from the situation on the global oil market.
Reuters reported on April 14 that the International Energy Agency (IEA) assessed that Russia’s crude oil exports had increased in March, nearly doubling the Kremlin’s revenues from $9.75 billion in February to $19 billion.
However, Siluanov also noted that overall income and spending levels have remained stubbornly flat over the last two months.
A weakening currency
In its May 3 2026 update on the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that even with oil cash flowing in, senior Russian financial figures are sounding the alarm about the coming months.
Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at Sberbank, predicted that the national currency will lose value significantly in the second half of the year.
He expects the exchange rate to slip from the current 75 rubles per dollar down to between 80 and 90, with the worst drop hitting in the final quarter.
Ukraine’s long-range campaign
Meanwhile, Ukraine is doing what it can to disrupt the flow of Russian oil with long-range strikes targeting the Russian oil industry.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that these strikes have cost Moscow at least 7 billion dollars in lost revenue since the start of 2026.
Despite this damage, higher oil prices — fueled by Middle East tensions and eased United States sanctions — could still help refill government coffers.
A weakening currency
ISW notes that even with oil cash flowing in, senior Russian financial figures are sounding the alarm about the coming months.
Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at Sberbank, predicted that the national currency will lose value significantly in the second half of the year.
He expects the exchange rate to slip from the current 75 rubles per dollar down to between 80 and 90, with the worst drop hitting in the final quarter.
Sources: The Institute for the Study of War, TASS, Reuters, statement on X from Volodymyr Zelenskyy
