Marcus Keupp, a military economist from ETH Zürich, has stated that Russia's large-scale offensive on the eastern front has failed and he no longer believes Russia can win the war. According to the Swiss news Portal Watson, Russia has been facing an unusually high rate of wear and tear on its military equipment for about ten days.
This has forced Russia to move its artillery closer to the front lines, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine has recently deployed ATACMS missiles for the first time, which could significantly alter the military dynamics. These missiles have a longer range and are particularly effective against Russian attack helicopters. Before the introduction of these missiles, Ukrainian tanks were largely defenseless against such aerial attacks.
The United States has confirmed that it will supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles in the long term. Keupp mentioned that there is no global shortage of these missiles, with the U.S. alone possessing over 700 units.
The Western dilemma
The delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine has been delayed, mainly due to fears of Russian propaganda and threats, including the possibility of a nuclear war.
These threats have led to hesitant responses from the West.
Strategically lost by end of October
Keupp emphasized that most of Russia's air assets are located in Crimea. With ATACMS, Ukraine could potentially target the entire peninsula, forcing Russia to either withdraw its equipment or risk its destruction.
Despite the imposition of multiple rounds of sanctions by the European Union, Russia has managed to find alternative routes for its imports. For instance, EU exports to countries in the Eurasian Economic Union have seen a significant increase, undermining the effectiveness of the sanctions.
Keupp maintains that Russia can no longer gain the upper hand in this conflict. While hostilities may continue, strategically, the war is already lost for Russia.