Russian forces have launched a significant offensive targeting the nation's energy grid, capitalizing on the current shortages in Ukraine's air defense capabilities. This insight was highlighted in the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) report, which detailed the extensive drone and missile attacks conducted by Russia across Ukraine.
During the night of March 21-22, Russian military efforts zeroed in on more than 130 energy infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine. Notably, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, Ukraine's largest, was among the dozens of targeted sites. According to the ISW, this assault marks "the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the onset of the full-scale invasion."
Reflecting on the winter of 2022, when Russian attacks decimated half of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, there was an anticipation of repeated assaults aimed at the power grid. Despite the looming threat, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, in late January 2024, assured the stability of the country's energy sector.
However, the comprehensive aerial attack executed on March 22 underscores Russia's persistent objective to disrupt Ukraine's power grid. The ISW interprets these early Spring 2024 strikes as a deliberate effort to collapse the energy grid, thereby hampering Ukrainian initiatives to bolster its defense-industrial base.
The noted shortfall in Kyiv's air defense missile systems presents an additional vulnerability that Russian forces are poised to exploit. A report by The Washington Post on March 15 highlighted this critical shortage, suggesting that Ukraine might soon be compelled to recalibrate its defensive strategy, potentially intercepting only a fraction of incoming missiles.
According to the ISW, Russian forces are expected to seize this opportune moment to press their advantage for as long as the air defense gaps persist. "Although the attempt on March 22 did not succeed in collapsing the Ukrainian energy grid, Russia might continue to intensify strikes on energy infrastructure in future operations, particularly to take advantage of ongoing delays in Western security assistance," the analysts commented.
