Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The International Energy Agency estimates that repeated drone strikes have cut Russia’s refining capacity by about 500,000 barrels a day.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered an unpredictable new phase, as the 4-Year anniversary of the full-scale war draws near.
For the first time in nearly four years, Moscow has been caught off guard as Ukrainian forces strike deep inside Russian territory.
According to Euronews, a wave of long-range drone attacks from Ukraine has reached farther than at any other point since the conflict began in 2022, inflicting serious damage on Russia’s vital energy infrastructure.
New reach, new targets
The latest Ukrainian operations have focused on oil refineries, fuel depots and logistics hubs across Russia.
Built in small workshops scattered around the country, these unmanned aircraft now travel greater distances than ever before.
Military analysts say the attacks have already disrupted fuel supplies, leading to shortages and rationing in several Russian regions — exposing weaknesses in Moscow’s domestic infrastructure.
Western experts cited by the Carnegie Endowment report that Ukrainian drones have hit at least 16 major Russian refineries, affecting nearly 38% of the country’s refining capacity.
Though many facilities resumed operations within weeks, the repeated strikes have forced Russia to rely on unused capacity and fuel reserves to maintain production.
A shifting battlefield
The renewed drone campaign has handed Kyiv a symbolic and tactical advantage.
While U.S. and European sanctions continue to squeeze Russia’s oil exports, Ukraine is pressing Washington for long-range Tomahawk missiles to expand its strike capabilities.
President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters that Ukraine’s improved reach is “causing real damage,” forcing the Kremlin to import fuel and cut exports.
“We believe they have lost up to 20 percent of their gasoline reserves – directly as a result of our attacks,” he said at a press briefing in Kyiv.
At one secret launch site, a commander identified only by the call sign “Fidel” watched through night-vision goggles as drones rose into the night sky.
“Drones are evolving,” he said. “Instead of flying 500 kilometers, they now fly 1,000. For us, this is a sacred mission.”
Engineering a revolution
Most of Ukraine’s drone fleet is now produced domestically. Among them is the Liutyi, a night-attack model with a sausage-shaped body and triangular tail.
Though unassuming in appearance, it has become a national emblem of ingenuity and endurance — even appearing on a recent postage stamp.
The aircraft’s modular design allows for easy modification and concealment, a key factor in bypassing Russia’s dense air defense network. Some models have doubled their range in a year, routinely reaching 1,000 kilometers into Russian territory — far beyond the western border regions that once marked the outer limit of Ukraine’s reach.
The strategic shift
The evolution of Ukraine’s drones has also changed the economic equation of the war.
Once costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, long-range UAVs can now be built for roughly $55,000 (€47,000) each, making them a cost-effective weapon against Russia’s expensive anti-air systems.
“Ukraine is becoming more and more effective at waging war inside Russia,” said Adriano Bosoni, director of analysis at RANE, a global risk consultancy. “For most of the war, Russia operated on the assumption that its own territory was safe. That is no longer the case.”
The International Energy Agency estimates that repeated drone strikes have cut Russia’s refining capacity by about 500,000 barrels a day — a loss that could have lasting implications for Moscow’s war effort.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation
