Ukraine's surprising advantage as Russia faces equipment crisis

Written by Jeppe W

Oct.27 - 2023 7:08 AM CET

Losses of Russian equipment are likely to undermine Russian offensive capabilities in the long term

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In a remarkable turn of events on the Eastern Front, the Russian military has faced unprecedented equipment losses near Avdiivka, Ukraine, significantly hindering their offensive capabilities.

This development not only marks a tactical setback for Russia but also provides a strategic advantage to Ukrainian forces, bolstering their resilience and determination in the face of adversity.

According to Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, Russian forces have suffered a staggering loss of 5,000 personnel, along with 400 armored vehicles near Avdiivka and Marinka since October 10.

These figures are verified by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and have been substantiated by satellite imagery, which confirmed the loss of at least 109 military vehicles, predominantly comprising armored fighting vehicles and tanks, between October 10 and 20.

These significant equipment losses have necessitated a tactical shift within the Russian forces, with a noticeable reduction in the use of armored vehicles near Avdiivka.

For Ukraine, these equipment losses on the Russian side translate into a strategic advantage.

The depletion of Russian military assets directly impacts their ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations, providing Ukrainian forces with an opportunity to fortify their positions and prepare for potential future assaults.

Furthermore, the visible decline in Russian mechanized capabilities serves as a morale booster for Ukrainian troops, reinforcing their determination to defend their homeland.

The current equipment losses around Avdiivka are not an isolated incident.

Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine has been characterized by widespread equipment shortages and losses, which were glaringly evident during the disorganized mechanized assaults near Vuhledar in the winter-spring of 2023

Despite efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB) to alleviate equipment shortages, Russia has struggled to achieve this at a scale sufficient to counterbalance the cumulative losses in Ukraine.

The inability to offset these losses raises serious questions about the sustainability of Russia’s offensive and its long-term military capabilities.

The long-term implications of these losses for Russia are severe, highlighting the vulnerabilities in their military strategy and their struggle to sustain offensive operations.

With Ukraine standing resilient and Russia facing a strategic setback, the balance of power on the Eastern Front appears to be shifting, casting a spotlight on the unfolding drama of this conflict.