Camilla Jessen
Moscow’s stance in peace talks may not just prolong the war in Ukraine — it could trigger a political backlash from Donald Trump
As Moscow doubles down on its demands in stalled peace talks with Ukraine, some analysts warn that Russia may be miscalculating — not on the battlefield, but in its relationship with US President Donald Trump.
Despite facing growing pressure at home to deliver a breakthrough on his promised Ukraine peace plan, President Trump has found his efforts repeatedly frustrated by the Kremlin’s intransigence.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russian territory using long-range drones.
In recent peace talks held in Istanbul, Russian negotiators presented what has been described as an uncompromising memorandum to their Ukrainian counterparts.
Among its demands: the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions partially occupied by Russia, the acceptance of strict military neutrality, and the lifting of all Western sanctions.
The proposal, which Kyiv has rejected outright, has been described by observers as a virtual call for capitulation.
“This is not a serious basis for negotiation,” said one Western diplomat briefed on the discussions. “It reads more like a wishlist than a roadmap to peace.”
Trump’s Patience Wears Thin
The impasse in talks comes at a politically sensitive moment for President Trump, whose campaign-style promise to end the war “within 24 hours” has become a central plank of his foreign policy in his second term.
Trump has until now been cautious about criticising President Vladimir Putin directly, but following a wave of deadly Russian airstrikes on Ukraine last week, his tone appeared to shift.
In private comments reported by CNN, Trump described Putin as having gone “absolutely crazy.”
The White House has not officially confirmed these remarks.
However, Trump’s recent comments on Russia’s approach to peace talks have grown more pointed.
Speaking to CBS Sunday Morning, he said the Kremlin’s negotiating stance was “not helpful” and “could force us to consider new options.”
Those options could include an increase in military assistance to Ukraine or support for a Senate-led sanctions bill that would impose what its authors describe as “devastating” financial penalties on Moscow.
One of the bill’s sponsors, Senator Richard Blumenthal, accused Russia of “mocking peace efforts” and “playing with Trump and America” in a post on social media platform X.
Putin’s Strategic Gamble
Some analysts believe President Putin may be misjudging the current US political landscape.
With the war dragging into its third year, and with Ukraine demonstrating an increased ability to target key Russian military infrastructure, the risks of continued inflexibility are growing.
Ukraine’s recent long-range drone attacks reportedly damaged strategic bombers stationed deep inside Russia, including at bases thousands of kilometres from the front lines.
These attacks, combined with Ukraine’s sustained defence of its territory and successful prisoner swaps, have raised concerns in Moscow that the war is slipping out of its narrative control.
Despite these developments, the Kremlin has shown no public willingness to alter its terms.
“Putin seems to believe time is on his side,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “But he may be underestimating Trump’s need to show strength and results.”