Asger Risom
Moscow presents itself as Tehran’s ally, but its real ambition may be to turn Middle East chaos into a global diplomatic windfall.
As tensions erupt between Israel and Iran, one nation stands quietly to benefit: Russia. Vladimir Putin’s response to the escalating conflict is not just strategic, it’s opportunistic.
By positioning Moscow as a key interlocutor between Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington, the Kremlin is seeking more than peacekeeping credentials.
It’s playing for a permanent seat at the global power table.
From proxy to power broker
For years, Putin has cultivated ties with both Israeli and Iranian leadership.
Now, as war unfolds, those ties offer Russia a central role in future negotiations. While publicly condemning Israel’s airstrikes and offering to mediate, Moscow is less interested in protecting allies than in cementing itself as an indispensable diplomatic actor.
Analysts argue this is the Kremlin’s long game: to elevate Russia alongside the U.S. and China in shaping post-conflict outcomes in the region, as reported by Digi24.
This tactic also distracts from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
With global focus shifting to the Middle East, Putin relieves international pressure, reduces scrutiny, and potentially forces the West to bargain on multiple fronts.
Economic and military calculations
Although Israel’s strikes have so far spared Iran’s oil-exporting infrastructure, market jitters pushed crude prices up, thus benefiting Russia’s war-battered economy.
And while Israel reportedly damaged a key drone plant in Isfahan, the larger strategic picture favors Moscow: a destabilized Middle East absorbs Western attention and resources.
Simultaneously, Russia’s military partnership with Iran remains pragmatic, not loyal. Moscow has armed Tehran when convenient, and vice versa.
But Putin’s refusal to sell Su-35 fighter jets and Israel’s decision not to supply arms to Ukraine suggest a more complex, transactional web.
Diminishing Ukraine, elevating Russia
For the Kremlin, every new flashpoint on the global stage reduces Ukraine’s salience. As one Kremlin-aligned analyst put it, a war between Israel and Iran “will help the Russian army succeed in Ukraine.”
The goal isn’t just distraction, it’s transformation. With each diplomatic phone call and mediating gesture, Putin inches closer to shedding the image of aggressor and reclaiming the mantle of global statesman.