Camilla Jessen
President Donald Trump is desperate to stay out of the war with Iran, but whether he can avoid it remains to be seen.
US President Donald Trump wants to avoid war with Iran.
But many factors may make it difficult for him to keep the United States out of the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Trump Rejects Israeli Assassination Plan
According to CNN and Reuters, Trump recently rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, events on the ground could still draw the US into the conflict.
If Iran attacks American bases, personnel, or targets around the world, Washington would likely be forced to respond to defend its credibility.
Iran could also pressure Trump by targeting international shipping in the Persian Gulf or Red Sea, causing a global energy crisis.
Pressure From Trump’s Own Party
Inside the US, some Republicans are already pressuring Trump to take stronger action. Some want the US military to destroy Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility, which is believed to be out of Israel’s reach.
Former Vice President Mike Pence said on CNN’s State of the Union that if Israel’s strikes fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program, the US must be ready to help.
“There can be no nuclear program of any kind, no enrichment program of any kind,” Pence said.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that if diplomacy fails, Trump should ensure Iran’s nuclear program is fully destroyed.
“If that means providing bombs, providing bombs. If that means flying with Israel, flying with Israel,” Graham stated, as cited by Digi24.
Trump’s Domestic Political Challenge
Trump’s situation is complicated by the growing isolationist views within his political base.
Many of his supporters do not want the US involved in another Middle East war. Right-wing voices like Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk have warned Trump not to anger his MAGA supporters by starting a new conflict.
Trump is known to be careful not to upset his base. For example, he recently reversed a decision on mass deportations of farmworkers, partly to protect support from farmers and rural voters.
In a recent interview with The Atlantic, Trump said, “Given that I’m the one who developed the concept of ‘America First,’ I think I’m the one who decides that.”
But he also argued that allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons would not bring peace.
A Difficult Decision
Trump faces the same kind of tough choices other presidents have faced. Military intervention might remove Iran’s nuclear threat, but could also risk another long war in the Middle East, similar to past conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump’s advisors may argue that this is a unique chance to stop Iran’s nuclear program or even bring down Iran’s leadership. But recent US experiences in the region show that toppling regimes often creates chaos instead of peace.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Struggles
Trump began his second term promising peace. But now, conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran have worsened. His “America First” policy is being tested.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has forced Trump to back down in trade disputes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attacks on Iran may have forced Trump into a conflict he hoped to avoid.
Domestically, Trump’s popularity has been hurt by his hardline policies, including sending troops to break up protests in California. His authority abroad is also under strain. Despite his promises of successful diplomacy, many of his trade and peace deals have failed.
Trump now faces the type of international crisis he avoided during his first term.
How he handles the conflict with Iran could define his second term.