August M
Weather has always dictated the cost of the food on our plates.
When global temperatures spike, a sudden shift in ocean currents thousands of miles away can trigger a chain reaction that hits grocery bills in every corner of the planet, reports The Guardian.
Double price shock
Households already struggling with high living costs are facing another massive financial hit. Analysts warn that a super El Niño weather cycle could trigger a global food price crisis lasting deep into 2028.
According to The Guardian, the ongoing Iran war has already pushed global food prices to a three-year high. This means supply chains now face two major shocks at the exact same time.
Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say there is a 63 percent chance that Pacific temperatures will spike dramatically. This warming is expected to trigger extreme heatwaves, intense flooding, and severe storms.
Climateflation is back
The looming crisis is already causing serious concern for central banks. Analysts at UniCredit warned in a research note that “El Niño puts ‘climateflation’ back on the agenda,” noting that recent heatwaves show how fast the climate baseline is shifting.
Experts at Goldman Sachs predict the weather cycle could cause a massive 15.8 percent spike in global food commodity prices. They warn the full impact will take time to ripple through, peaking in the second half of 2028.
The extreme weather is already damaging crops worldwide. India is experiencing an incredibly dry monsoon season, with some regions receiving just 25 percent of their normal rainfall. This drought threatens vital global supplies of wheat, rice, and sugar cane.
No room for error
The disruption will not hit everyone equally. Analysts at UBS pointed out that “El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers.”
Even so, the overall economic damage could be staggering.
A report by climate-risk firm Risilience estimated that an extreme scenario could wipe out 14.3 percent of global agricultural production, costing the world economy 342 billion dollars.
Key crops like coffee, cocoa, and palm oil are highly vulnerable. Risilience warned that the food system enters the second half of 2026 with “little margin for error,” meaning even minor crop failures could send supermarket prices soaring.
Sources: The Guardian, NOAA, UniCredit, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Risilience
