Nicolai Haugsted
Trump threatens more strikes as Republicans worry about political fallout.
Donald Trump insists the war with Iran will not shape the outcome of November’s midterm elections. Behind the scenes, however, growing anxiety is spreading through Republican ranks as fuel prices climb, American troops lose their lives overseas and voters begin to feel the conflict in their wallets.
While the president continues to threaten additional military action, several Republican strategists fear the political cost of a prolonged conflict could become increasingly difficult to contain.
Speaking alongside Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump dismissed suggestions that the war could hurt Republicans at the ballot box.
“No, the election – I don’t think it has anything to do with it,” Trump said. “I think people are very impressed,” he said acoodring to Onet Politico.
The president also argued that Iran was likely attempting to influence the election but insisted such efforts would have no effect on his decisions.
Republicans eye the gas pump
Not everyone in Trump’s party appears equally confident.
Since fighting resumed following the collapse of a ceasefire earlier this month, oil prices have climbed sharply as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed once again. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price reached $4.02 per gallon on Tuesday morning — up 16 cents from last week, 88 cents higher than a year ago and more than a dollar above the level recorded before the latest round of fighting.
Republican strategist Jason Roe believes rising fuel costs could become one of the defining issues ahead of the elections.
“I think a lot of Republicans have been quiet about the so-called ceasefire because it started to lower gas prices, and I think that’s probably the biggest issue that we have some control over and need to get under control if we’re going to maintain our majority,” Roe said.
According to Roe, many Republicans may be willing to accept an imperfect ceasefire if it helps stabilise prices, arguing that continued exchanges between Washington and Tehran risk undermining voter confidence.
White House promises prices will fall
The administration maintains that its military strategy will ultimately improve the economic outlook.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers argued that weakening Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes would allow energy markets to recover, saying the president remains committed to lowering costs for American families while strengthening U.S. energy production.
Energy analysts, however, warn that additional challenges are beginning to stack up.
Global supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have already tightened after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Russian refineries, forcing American plants to maximise production to fill the gap left by disruptions in both Russia and the Middle East.
More pressure could still be coming
Analysts also point to concerns that some U.S. refineries may have postponed essential maintenance while operating at full capacity, increasing the risk of unexpected outages. At the same time, hurricane season has arrived along the Gulf Coast, where much of America’s refining infrastructure is concentrated, with Tropical Storm Bertha already affecting the region.
“Consumers should prepare for higher prices,” said Bob McNally, head of Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser under President George W. Bush.
With fuel prices moving higher and military tensions showing few signs of easing, Republicans now face the prospect that foreign policy and household finances could become increasingly difficult to separate on the campaign trail.
