Lauge Risom Koch 
A potential new wave of military mobilization in Russia could trigger massive battlefield losses, widespread desertion, and significant political unrest.
A potential new wave of military mobilization in Russia could trigger massive battlefield losses and widespread desertion. The Kremlin faces mounting difficulties in maintaining the necessary manpower for its ongoing war against Ukraine. This growing personnel crisis creates significant domestic political risks for the Russian government as the conflict drags on.
Struggling to maintain military manpower
Russian military forces are currently experiencing severe challenges in replacing their heavy frontline casualties. According to a report by United24 Media, regional authorities have been instructed to recruit 409,000 new contract soldiers throughout 2026. However, military analysts warn that finding sufficient numbers of willing volunteers has become increasingly difficult.
To attract more recruits, the Russian government has dramatically increased its financial incentives and signing bonuses. In some specific regions, new soldiers are offered massive payments reaching up to 4.5 million rubles. Despite these lucrative offers, officials are struggling to meet their required recruitment quotas using voluntary contracts alone.
This desperate need for troops has led to increasingly coercive and aggressive recruitment practices across the country. As detailed by United24 Media, local police have conducted workplace raids and detained men directly from the streets. These detained individuals are then taken to local recruitment offices and heavily pressured into signing military contracts.
Surging casualty and desertion rates
The intense pressure to recruit new soldiers directly correlates with the staggering number of casualties on the battlefield. Western intelligence estimates suggest that nearly 500,000 Russian troops have been killed since the full-scale invasion began. Furthermore, current operational losses reportedly exceed 30,000 military personnel every single month.
This immense loss of life has completely absorbed the military’s ongoing recruitment efforts. Instead of building strong reserves for future offensive operations, commanders are simply using new recruits to replace dead or injured soldiers. If these recruitment numbers drop, experts warn that active frontline units will inevitably begin to shrink.
Simultaneously, the Russian military is dealing with a massive surge in troops abandoning their defensive posts. According to human rights organizations cited by United24 Media, at least 28,000 Russian service members have been formally convicted of desertion. However, leaked military documents indicate that the actual annual number of desertions could be at least twice as high.
The political risks of mobilization
To address these severe manpower shortages, the Kremlin might be forced to launch another nationwide mobilization. However, sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry warn that such a drastic step carries enormous political risks. The combination of forced deployments and subsequent high casualties could easily trigger extreme domestic unrest.
Current Russian officials publicly deny any immediate plans for a massive mandatory call-up. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently dismissed the looming prospect of another mobilization as complete nonsense. He claimed that the military had successfully recruited roughly 200,000 people during the first half of the year.
Despite these public reassurances, the Kremlin remains under intense pressure to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. If voluntary recruitment continues to fail, the government may have no choice but to enforce a mandatory draft. As highlighted by United24 Media, this desperate strategy would likely result in an unprecedented wave of military desertions.
