Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia’s harvest usually flows out through the ports of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea by the millions of tons.
This year the ships are not sailing, the silos are overflowing, and Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service says the numbers now confirm what farmers along the Don have felt for weeks.
Between August 1 and 20, Russian grain exports fell 2.5-fold to about 1.4 million metric tons, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which released the figures on September 6. Wheat shipments alone dropped 2.6-fold over the same 20 days.
September is projected to be worse: wheat exports of just 1.8 to 2.3 million metric tons, which would be the lowest September volume since 2010.
The intelligence service traced the drop to a single choke point. Up to 70% of Russia’s grain historically moved through southern ports, and those ports have been progressively taken offline by Ukrainian drone strikes on cargo ships, terminal infrastructure and shipping lanes in the Azov-Black Sea basin since July.
Rostov’s state of emergency
The pressure inside Russia became formal on August 28, when Rostov Oblast governor Yury Slyusar signed a regional state of emergency.
Rostov produces roughly 10% of the country’s grain, and its silos and elevators are full.
The regional government cited the halt of maritime shipping in the Azov-Black Sea basin, which had shut ports since mid-July. Local officials said farmers “cannot even put grain in elevators” because storage is already saturated.
Sea of Azov terminals, which had been moving up to 1.5 million tons of grain a month, have been closed since mid-July after drone attacks on cargo vessels. Major Black Sea grain terminals, including at Novorossiysk, have also sustained damage.
The result, per Ukrainian agricultural analysts, was August wheat exports of just 1.9 million tons, the lowest for that month in 16 years.
Rusagro’s 99% profit collapse
The damage has now reached the balance sheets of Russia’s biggest agricultural players.
Rusagro, one of the country’s largest agricultural holdings, reported net profit of just 55.88 million rubles in the first half of 2026, down from 4.8 billion rubles a year earlier, a fall of 99%.
Domestic wholesale prices for wheat, barley, sunflower seeds and soybeans dropped 3.3% to 8.5% in a single week in August as unsold crop piled up, and are now down more than 40% year over year.
In European Russia, class 4 wheat has fallen to 8,575 rubles per ton, about 35% below the season’s opening price.
Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, said shipments in the Sea of Azov basin had halted completely and described the situation for farmers as “very bad.”
Rerouting is expensive, and slow
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has said supply logistics will be “redirected if necessary,” pointing to Black Sea deep-water terminals and Baltic ports as alternatives.
Analysts have warned that Baltic routing would add roughly $30 to $50 per ton in transport costs, and that those ports do not have the throughput to absorb the volumes that used to leave through the south.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence release, the Kremlin is considering state purchases of unsold grain, subsidized loans, loans secured by unsold crops and the elimination of export duties.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies has revised its 2026 harvest forecast down to 138.5 million tons and cut its 2026-27 export capacity estimate to 60 million tons.
For now, the Rostov emergency decree remains in force, and the Sea of Azov ports have not resumed operations.
