Kathrine Frich
A big reason for this endurance involves a network of global workarounds.
When a massive country shifts its entire economy toward conflict, the cracks can take years to show.
Factories eventually struggle to find workers, and local budgets start running dry.
But a failing system can still keep going for a surprisingly long time.
Running on fumes
The Russian government is currently navigating a severe financial headache. According to Business Insider, the nation faces a mounting federal deficit, a shaky banking sector, and a desperate shortage of everyday labor.
Oleh Ivashchenko, the head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, recently detailed this situation in an interview with Ukrinform cirted by Business Insider. He noted that the invading nation is struggling to keep its domestic engine running smoothly.
“Russia is much weaker economically today than at the beginning of a full-scale war,” Ivashchenko told the Ukrainian news outlet.
Despite these deep financial wounds, the Kremlin still holds enough cash and supplies to keep fighting for several more years.
Sanctions and shadows
“At the same time, it still has sufficient resources to wage war with Ukraine. We don’t rule out that these resources will be sufficient for both 2027 and 2028,” the intelligence chief added.
A big reason for this endurance involves a network of global workarounds. Outside actors continue to help Moscow bypass international sanctions, allowing the military to build more weapons.
“We know from which countries the Russian Federation receives electronic components, machine tools, and special chemicals. Many companies bring Russia what works for its war machine and against us,” Ivashchenko explained.
Beyond these shadow supply chains, the military faces a much more visible problem back home.
Exhausted recruitment lines
Finding fresh troops is becoming incredibly difficult. Casualties are mounting rapidly on the front lines, and local authorities are running out of money to pay signing bonuses.
“We can say that the contract recruitment model in Russia has largely exhausted itself,” Ivashchenko told Ukrinform.
He noted that local Russian budgets simply cannot finance these payments anymore. Meanwhile, the human cost keeps climbing.
“At the same time, Russian military casualties are rising. The average daily casualty rate for Russian soldiers is between 1,200 and 1,400, sometimes even 1,500. We’re talking about dead and seriously wounded,” he added.
Tricked into the trenches
Public support is also dropping fast. The intelligence chief claimed that over 60 percent of the Russian public now opposes the conflict.
“We expect discontent to grow. It’s hard to say whether a sufficiently strong protest potential will emerge. But over 60 percent of people are already opposed to the war,” Ivashchenko stated.
To fill the gaps in assault units, the military now brings in foreign nationals from over 40 different countries across Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia.
Many of these recruits have no idea they are heading to a battlefield.
“They go to Russia to seek employment, they sign contracts, sometimes without even knowing what they’re signing,” Ivashchenko told the publication.
Sources: Business Insider, Ukrinform
