Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
“If the reports of a new Russian mobilization turn out to be true, Russia’s NATO neighbor is ready to do what is necessary.”
The Russian election for the Duma is officially over, and even though the votes are still being counted, there is no tension regarding the outcome:
Putin-backed United Russia will take the majority of the seats in the Duma – and it will even gain a majority large enough to be able to change the Russian constitution.
But now the question of how Putin will use the election result is what needs to be answered, after months of warnings from Ukraine and analysts that the Russian leader could use the outcome as proof of support for the war among the Russian population and then use that to order a new general mobilization.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied planning a new mobilization, but it also denied any plans to invade Ukraine before the invasion was launched in February 2022.
And Russia’s NATO neighbor, Estonia, is getting ready to act if a mobilization is ordered by the Kremlin.
Ready to shut borders
According to Estonian public broadcaster ERR, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said at a press conference that his country stands ready to close all border crossings with Russia immediately if Moscow declares a general mobilization.
Following a security cabinet meeting, Michal explained that Tallinn monitors security developments continuously and can shut border checkpoints on short notice.
“There is nothing mysterious or extraordinary about this. It is no news to anyone that things are going very badly in Russia,” Michal said.
“There isn’t a single healthy part of their economy, and 30,000 to 40,000 men are killed or wounded every month. At some point, they will have to take steps to keep the war going, and NATO and European Union countries need to be prepared for those steps,” he continued.
Rapid response
Michal noted border operations can stop rapidly. “The border can also be closed immediately, as we have done on occasion when there have been troublemakers at border crossing points. The Police and Border Guard Board and the interior minister are aware of this, and we have the capability to close border crossing points very quickly,” he stated, according to ERR.
Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna emphasized that a broad compulsory mobilization would trigger sharp political friction inside Russia, ERR reported.
“Everyone understands that if, for example, a blanket compulsory mobilization is announced for a certain age group, it will significantly increase internal tensions in Russia,” Tsahkna noted.
Tsahkna also highlighted that Schengen countries issued roughly 650,000 visas to Russian citizens last year. He warned European partners that fleeing mobilization does not automatically grant eligibility for international protection or asylum, ERR reported.
No easy asylum
“A person in Russia may think that if they flee to Europe in the event of mobilization, it gives grounds for international protection,” Tsahkna stated. “It does not.”
Meanwhile, Russian conscripts face increasing restrictions when trying to leave their country. Exit bans routinely appear in electronic registries without warning or immediately upon arrival at border checkpoints.
Tighter border checks coincide with escalating Russian front-line losses, estimated at 1.4 million dead or injured. That staggering toll continues driving military-age Russians to flee abroad through land crossings into neighboring nations.
