Anna Hartz
Election results can look very different depending on how the numbers are examined.
In Russia, the ruling party has claimed a strong victory in the latest parliamentary election. However, an independent statistical analysis suggests that the official figures may not reflect the actual level of support for the party.
Suspected fraudulent votes
United Russia officially received 57.83 percent of the vote, according to Russia’s Central Election Commission. But an analysis by Novaya Gazeta Europe, reported by ASTRA, estimates that the party’s genuine support may have been closer to 34 percent after suspected fraudulent votes were excluded, reports United24Media.
The calculation was based on a method developed by physicist and election analyst Sergey Shpilkin. It examines the relationship between voter turnout and party results at individual polling stations.
Under normal conditions, polling stations are expected to form a relatively balanced group when turnout and voting results are compared. Stations affected by suspected fraud can create a long, unusual pattern on the graph. This is sometimes described as a “comet tail.”
According to the analysis, the main group of polling stations in the latest election was centred around 34 percent for United Russia. Researchers suggested that this could represent the party’s likely result without manipulation.
The method assumes that votes for the other parties were genuine. It also assumes that United Russia’s results should follow turnout patterns similar to those of its competitors.
Only two cases of physical ballot stuffing
Two election experts reportedly reviewed and agreed with the calculations. Researchers excluded Moscow from the analysis because electronic voting was widely used there. This makes comparisons with traditional paper ballots more difficult.
The official results showed the Communist Party receiving 13.76 percent, while the Liberal Democratic Party won 9.01 percent. New People received 7.96 percent. A Just Russia initially appeared to fall below the five percent threshold needed to enter parliament, but officials later said it had passed the barrier.
The Central Election Commission reported turnout of 59.32 percent. Commission head Ella Pamfilova said only two cases of physical ballot stuffing had been recorded nationwide.
However, analyst Boris Ovchinnikov told ASTRA that fraudulent votes may have accounted for around 55 percent of United Russia’s total.
The findings remain an independent statistical estimate, rather than an officially recognised recount.
