Daniel Wolfram
California is in deep preparations for El Niño as the weather forecast predicts a warm autumn.
California is on high alert because of the ‘Super’ El Niño that has swept the US this summer.
An unusually strong climate event in the tropical Pacific is altering weather outlooks across the region. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that “El Niño is strengthening,” with over a 90% chance of a major event this winter.
Forecasters say warming waters could trigger major shifts not seen since 1950. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” the Climate Prediction Center stated. Unseasonable warmth looks set to dominate through late autumn.
Waiting on winter
High mountain peaks in northern counties usually provide snow by late November, while regions farther south wait until December. Still, timing shifts every season. “Elevation, latitude, nearby bodies of water and the weather pattern in a particular year can move the first snow considerably earlier or later,” according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
Altitude plays the central role in when flakes actually hit the ground. Mount Whitney has already seen early flurries at its peak, but lower valleys rarely see anything this early. Meteorologist Sean Macaday told The Sacramento Bee that “California is really elevation-driven,” adding that “you would have to be at the top of Mount Whitney to see them.”
Popular spots like Mammoth Lakes normally get snow in late October, with Yosemite following by mid-November. Rare events even brought snow to Sacramento back in 1879 and Modesto four times since 1910. Even so, this year might break the usual timeline.
Preparing for the worst
That heat means that winter will probably arrive late. Macaday noted that “El Niño is starting to take hold,” explaining that “what we’re seeing is warmer air really setting into November.” November should stay relatively dry and warm across much of the state.
State leaders are already preparing for potential weather hazards.
California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Sept. 21 to position flood supplies, reinforce infrastructure, and help local towns handle coastal risks.
