Russia’s objective of gaining ground is being achieved — by Ukraine

Russian forces lost ground in September while suffering their highest monthly casualty toll this year. According to United24 Media, Ukrainian counteroffensives erased months of Russian territorial gains. The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russian military lost control of nearly 300 square kilometers since March 2026.

The research organization noted that Russian territorial gains slowed dramatically before becoming negative. After adjusting for recent operations, analysts assessed that Russian forces lost a net 294 square kilometers since March. Even including infiltration zones, Moscow expanded its presence by only 174 square kilometers over that period.

September proved devastating for the invading forces regarding both territory and personnel. Analysts calculated that Russia seized 176 square kilometers but lost 256 square kilometers. This reversal left Moscow with a net territorial loss of 81 square kilometers for the month.

Operation Vivaldi and infiltration zones

When factoring in infiltration zones, the territorial picture worsens for the Russian army. Russian forces seized 143 square kilometers while losing 318 square kilometers during that timeframe. This shift resulted in a net difference of 175 square kilometers in Ukraine’s favor.

At least 147 square kilometers liberated around Lyman during Operation Vivaldi became visible in September mapping updates. However, Ukrainian forces conducted parts of this operation over several preceding months. The Ukrainian military kept the operation concealed, making exact month-to-month comparisons difficult.

Due to this operational security, analysts concluded that Russia achieved no net territorial gain in September. Operation Vivaldi played a major role in reversing Russian gains around Lyman. The counteroffensive eliminated a Russian salient that threatened the northern approaches to Sloviansk.

Mounting casualties and internal problems

The Ukrainian counterattack disrupted Moscow’s plans for a maneuver around the Donetsk defensive belt. Analysts assess that these consequences extend beyond the territory already retaken. New Ukrainian positions around Lyman complicate future Russian attempts to advance toward Sloviansk.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered 46,320 casualties during September. This figure represents the highest monthly casualty rate recorded during 2026. Furthermore, September marked the third consecutive month in which Russian personnel losses exceeded 40,000 troops.

These battlefield losses compound internal issues plaguing Russian military formations. Leaked military documents revealed mass unauthorized absences and suicides inside the 127th Motor Rifle Division. These disciplinary problems continue to degrade the combat effectiveness of deployed troops.

This article is made and published by Lauge Risom Koch, who may have used AI in the preparation