Putin’s war grinds to a halt as Russia’s Ukraine gains hit three-year low

Western analysts tracking the front line in Ukraine now say Russia’s advance did not just stall in September 2026, it went into reverse, at exactly the moment Vladimir Putin ordered the government to pour unprecedented sums into the war.

The Finland-based open-source research outfit Black Bird Group estimates that the area under Russian control in Ukraine shrank by roughly 190 square kilometers in September, the greatest monthly net territorial loss in its dataset since June 2023.

That makes September the worst month Russia has had on the ground in more than three years.

Vivaldi derails the Donbas encirclement

The reversal is in large part the result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive known as Operation Vivaldi. Launched quietly in the north of the Donetsk region and kept classified until September, the operation was designed to break Russia’s attempt to encircle the twin cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Fighting has centered on the Lyman sector, where Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps has been clawing back ground. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly put the recaptured area at roughly 125 to 140 square kilometers, after an earlier claim of 176 square kilometers.

Independent trackers disagree on the exact numbers but not on the direction. The Institute for the Study of War, using geolocated battlefield footage, concludes that Russian forces captured 175.18 square kilometers in September while Ukrainian forces liberated 256.35 square kilometers, leaving Russia with a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers for the month.

Putin’s claim of 1,301 square kilometers

The gap between those figures and the Kremlin’s own tally is extraordinary. Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 1, Putin claimed Russian troops had seized 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September alone, about 2.5 times the gains the Russian military had previously claimed in a single month.

ISW writes in its October 2 assessment that Putin’s claims of Russian gains in September 2026 were “so far from reality as to resemble hallucinations,” and says it cannot assess whether the Russian president is aware the figures are inaccurate or simply accepts fabricated data provided to him by the Russian military leadership.

Ukrainian air defenses, meanwhile, are being tested at a new scale. In September they intercepted 83% of the 6,732 drones Russia launched, down from 92% in May, with jet-powered Shahed variants driving a growing share of the attacks.

A $200 billion war that is not gaining ground

The military picture is unfolding against a Russian budget that is bleeding at record speed. Putin has ordered Russia’s 2026 war-related spending pushed to roughly 17 trillion rubles, or about $200 billion, nearly $60 billion more than the original plan and some 40% above the government’s initial 2026 target.

Independent analysts put the real cost in the same range. Pavel Luzin of the Center for European Policy Analysis estimates actual 2026 military outlays at roughly 16 to 17 trillion rubles, attributing most of the surge to inflation and payments to contract soldiers rather than any expansion of operations.

The 2026 figure now effectively matches what the Kremlin had planned as its record 2027 defense budget. On September 28, the government raised planned 2027 defense spending to 17.1 trillion rubles, a 27% jump over the sum it had set aside only a year earlier, and lifted the 2026 budget deficit estimate to 3.2% of GDP from 1.6%.

Russia’s next battlefield test comes in the Lyman sector, where Ukraine says it is preparing a fourth phase of Operation Vivaldi.

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation