Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, nearly 400 Russian intelligence officers are currently operating across Europe.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently insisted to the Valdai Club that Moscow has no plan to strike Europe.
But his message carried a sharp sting.
Any “attack on Russia,” he warned, could provoke a harsh response with “all available weapons.”
According to Ukrainian intelligence, that nuclear rhetoric is simply designed to frighten Western governments into holding back support.
The real push is happening out of sight.
Clandestine networks in Europe
Ukrainian foreign intelligence, known as the SZRU, reports that nearly 400 Russian intelligence officers are currently operating across European soil.
Instead of rolling tanks across borders, Moscow prefers cyberattacks, sabotage, and mysterious drone flights.
Recent arrests show just how active those networks are. In Latvia, two citizens accused of feeding radar and infrastructure details to the GRU, Russia’s military spy agency, were recently detained by security officials.
One suspect allegedly photographed the Ādaži army base from a private plane.
Meanwhile, investigators also discovered plans targeting Starlink stations.
Testing the limits
Open war is still on the table, however. According to the SZRU, Moscow is actively drafting direct conflict scenarios that stretch all the way to 2045, including six that involve Northern Europe.
Other blueprints focus squarely on Poland and the Baltic states.
The intelligence has not been independently verified, but according to the SZRU the immediate goal is not necessarily defeating NATO on the battlefield. Instead, Ukrainian analysts warn the Kremlin could spark a controlled crisis on the eastern flank to force rushed decisions under deep uncertainty.
The point is to show the alliance cannot act fast.
Russian public opinion may also fuel that push. Polls by Russia’s independent Levada-Center show that while 61 percent of Russians support peace talks, 59 percent want harsher attacks if talks fall through.
For European capitals, the message is clear. Dealing with Moscow means treating Ukraine’s defense as the frontline of their own survival.
