Camilla Jessen
As Russia and Belarus prepare for large-scale military exercises, Ukraine’s president says the drills may be a cover for future offensives.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on April 29 that Russia could be using planned joint military exercises in Belarus this summer as a cover to prepare for renewed aggression, potentially targeting Ukraine or neighboring NATO countries.
“Look at Belarus — this summer, Russia is preparing something there under the guise of military exercises. This is how its new attacks usually start,” Zelensky said at the Three Seas Summit, according to Ukrainian outlet Suspilne.
While he stopped short of naming a specific target, Zelensky urged regional partners to stay alert.
Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? God forbid! But we all have to be prepared,” he said. “All our institutions are open to cooperation.
Zapad 2025 Raises Red Flags
Belarus is set to host Zapad 2025 (“West 2025”)—a major joint military drill with Russian forces—as part of a long-running series of exercises held biennially since 2009.
The last iteration, Zapad-2021, involved over 200,000 personnel and preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Although Belarus has not formally joined the war, it continues to host Russian troops, weapons, and missile systems, effectively serving as a staging area for Moscow’s military operations.
The country shares borders with Ukraine and three NATO members—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—underscoring its strategic importance.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has previously warned that such exercises can be used to disguise troop buildups.
“The visibility of the exercises is the most acceptable way to relocate, redeploy troops, concentrate them in a certain direction, and create a group of troops,” Syrskyi told Lb.ua earlier this month.
Potential Threats to NATO
Zelensky has repeatedly expressed concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin could expand military operations beyond Ukraine.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, he suggested that Russia might deploy as many as 150,000 troops in Belarus, potentially for operations aimed at NATO countries in 2026.
“Based on all the information I’ve gathered from intelligence and other sources, I think he is preparing for war against NATO countries next year,” Zelensky said, while acknowledging that the timeline remains uncertain.
Western leaders and intelligence agencies have increasingly warned of the risk of a wider European conflict in the next five years, citing Russia’s continued militarization and confrontational posture.