Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The conflict in the Middle East is likely to prolong the Russian-Ukraine war.
The conflict in the Middle East could unintentionally support Putin’s war efforts.
What is happening?
Since Israel launched an attack on Iran Friday morning, the two nations have traded blows with dozens of lives lost on both sides.
International ramifications
Other than the risk of a full-blown regional war in the Middle East drawing nearer, the conflict between Israel and Iran is also likely to have international ramifications.
And Ukraine is at risk of drawing the short straw.
What will the US do?
Donald Trump has already casted doubt on further US support for Ukraine, and the war between Israel and Iran casts an even darker shadow over the Ukrainian hope of continued US assistance.
Longtime ally
The reason for this is that Israel is a longtime ally of the US, and if things spiral out of control in the Middle East, chances are US will focus their support in that region.
Any leftovers for Ukraine?
With Trump’s policy of America First, he is likely to only send support where it’s really needed (in his opinion).
Ukrains is in need of US support as well, but they are not a longtime ally to the US as israel is, so it’s more likely that Trump would chose to send aid for Israel than Ukraine.
The oil price
Immediatly after news of the Israeli attack broke Friday morning, oil prices jumped from under $60 per barrel to $75 per barrel.
Iran is the third biggest producer of oil in the Middle East.
The Hormuz Strait
Another factor contributing to the spiking of oil prices is the Iranian proximity to the Hormuz Strait – a major trade route for oil.
The uncertain situation in the Middle East at the moment adds to the fear of international oil trade being disrupted, and if it happens, it could be good news for Putin.
More money for the war machine
Failing oil prices has been hurting the Russian economy and stretched the Russiand state budget to it’s limits.
But if oil-exports from the Middle East gets disrupted and oil prices go even higher, it could bolster Putins war chest, potentially prolonging the war in Ukraine.
Israel holding back – for now
Reports are that Israel has so far only targeted Iranian domestic energy infrastructure, including gas processing plants.
But Israel seems to be keeping their options open, including an escalation targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, if Tehran continues to ramp up it’s attacks Israeli territory.
Shift in international focus
The third risk for Ukraine is that the international society simply shifts focus, as it will be preoccupied with trying to defuse the situation in the Middle East.
This bodes ill for the Ukrainian war effort, the Ukrainians are already fighting for attention with the war in Gaza.
Zelenskyy’s big task
Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelenskyy, is invided to attend the G7 summit in Canada this week, and it will be paramount for him to remind the leaders of the G7 Nations that though the situation in the Middle East is volatile, the situation in Ukraine is bad as well.