Edith Hejberg
Trump’s once-generous peace timeline has shrunk to just “10 or 12 days,” a sign that U.S. patience is thinning fast.
After more than 1,250 days of war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin dreams of turning a military win into Russia’s ticket back to the club of world powers. But no matter how hard he pushes, the prize remains out of reach, blocked by a barrier he can’t break.
The Legitimacy Problem for Dictators
Dictators, no matter their grip on power, lack real legitimacy. Their authority doesn’t come from genuine public choice, which is why they cling to referendums and rigged elections to project a façade of popular consent.
Early Years of Acceptance
In his first decade in power, Putin still mingled with Western leaders. Victories like the second Chechen war and diplomatic summits boosted his credibility. But this began to change when domestic protests erupted after his 2012 return to the presidency.
Turning Against the West
To counter public dissent, Putin reinvented himself as the defender of “traditional Russian values” against Western influence. This confrontation found its testing ground in Ukraine, beginning with Crimea’s annexation and incursions into eastern Ukraine.
Crimea and Beyond
The annexation of Crimea was sold as correcting a historic wrong. It won him domestic support but deepened isolation abroad. Still, the Kremlin pursued negotiations, like the Minsk agreements, in hopes of ending its diplomatic exile.
A Failed Path Back to the Table
Even after Crimea, Putin sought a way back into the West’s good graces. When these diplomatic overtures failed, he doubled down with the 2022 full-scale invasion intended as a lightning-fast triumph, but now a costly quagmire.
Signs of Flexibility
Despite his hard-line image, Putin has recently softened some demands. He has floated ideas involving the United Nations and hinted at the possibility of talks without rigid preconditions, signaling cracks in his stance.
The Negotiation Gambit
Moscow now sees negotiations as a potential substitute for outright victory. That’s why Putin demands Ukraine withdraw from even areas Russia doesn’t control, hoping to dictate terms and redraw borders to his advantage.
Washington’s Growing Frustration
Even some in Donald Trump’s administration, seen as more open to Putin, say his demands go too far. Trump’s once-generous peace timeline has shrunk to just “10 or 12 days,” a sign that U.S. patience is thinning fast.
Ukraine’s Firm Resistance
War fatigue exists in Ukraine, but there’s little chance Kyiv will bow to Moscow’s ultimatums. Even with whispers of compromise in Washington, Ukraine shows no sign of accepting a deal that cements Putin’s vision of victory.
