Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
They fear, Russia is doing a “stealth mobilization”, and the new law adds fuel to the fire of that fear.
They fear, Russia is doing a “stealth mobilization”, and the new law adds fuel to the fire of that fear.
Kremlin Moves Toward Year-Round Conscription
Russia is pushing forward legislation that would allow conscription to take place year-round, replacing the current twice-yearly draft.
Experts view this as part of a broader plan for long-term military engagement—not just in Ukraine, but potentially against NATO.
A Dual Army Strategy Under Pressure
According to the Kyiv Independent, Moscow currently operates two armies: a conscript army for homeland defense and a contract army composed of paid volunteers who serve abroad.
To avoid the backlash of full mobilization, the Kremlin has relied on hefty enlistment bonuses. But this approach is increasingly seen as unsustainable in the long run.
Stealth Mobilization
Analysts believe the proposed draft law is a step toward “stealth mobilization.” It avoids the optics of a full-scale draft while still reinforcing troop numbers.
Ukrainian defense experts say the law is almost guaranteed to pass, having been introduced by Andriy Kartopolov—a close ally of Vladimir Putin.
Billions Pledged for Rearmament
Russian defense spending is set to skyrocket. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Moscow plans to allocate $1.1 trillion to rearmament by 2036.
This would represent the largest investment in military capability since the Soviet Union’s collapse—signaling long-term preparation for confrontation with NATO.
New Military Districts Raise Alarms
As part of these reforms, Russia has re-established the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and is building new divisions.
Analysts say these moves aren’t just about Ukraine—they’re preparations for a broader geopolitical strategy that includes reshaping the post-Cold War global order.
Planning for a 2036 Horizon
Why 2036? Experts say the Kremlin avoids sudden, sweeping military moves that could spark unrest at home.
By stretching its plans over more than a decade, Russia aims to slowly normalize increased defense spending and military readiness among its population.
The Financial Strain of War
Russia’s reliance on high enlistment bonuses is being challenged by its struggling economy. Sanctions and isolation have hit key industries hard.
According to analysts, the Kremlin may no longer be able to afford its pay-to-play military model for much longer.
Surpassing Europe’s Military Spending
In 2024, Russia’s defense budget soared to $462 billion—surpassing the combined military expenditure of all European nations.
With domestic industries retooled for war and social programs being scaled back, Russia is rapidly transforming into a full-fledged wartime economy.
Society Reshaped for Conflict
The Kremlin is reorienting not just its budget, but its entire society toward long-term conflict.
Efforts include digitizing mobilization, promoting military-patriotic education, and encouraging local governments to cut social programs in favor of military investment.
A Global Strategy Beyond Ukraine
Analysts warn that Russia’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. The Kremlin aims to defeat NATO, reclaim former Soviet territories, and position itself as a new global hegemon.
