Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Trumps deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or peace comes tomorrow – but what did the U.S. envoy visit to Moscow achieve?
Trumps deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or peace comes tomorrow – but what did the U.S. envoy visit to Moscow achieve?
What is happening?
Donald Trumps deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine comes tomorrow.
U.S. envoy in Moscow
Yesterday, Wednesday, the U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, visited Moscow and had a three hour talk with Russian President, Vladimir Putin.
No details of what the meeting brought with it has been revealed, but according to Donald Trump, everyone (Russia, Ukraine, U.S.) agrees that the war should end.
Trump teases Putin-meeting next week
Yesterday, The White House teased that Donald Trump is ready to meet face to face with Vladimir Putin as early as next week.
Nothing solid has been confirmed, though.
Will we get a peace or a ceasefire?
Even though both Washington and Moscow have described the meeting Wednesday as positive, the biggest question of them all still remains:
Will Putin actually agree on to a ceasefire or peace? And will it be on terms that Kyiv can accept?
Argument for: Showing intentions
Putin wants to prove to Donald Trump, that Russia is in fact actively working on a ceasefire or peace with Ukraine.
Putin still hopes to get a better relationship with the U.S., and that makes it imperative for him to not anger Donald Trump by refusing a deal.
Argument for: Russia’s economy
Even though the Kremlin wants the Russian public to know that everything is fine, Russia’s economy is feeling the strain of the numerous sanctions imposed by the West.
Additional tariffs, as well as secondary tariffs on key Russian trade partners, will make the Russian economy hurt even more.
Argument for: Ukraine wants to protect civilians
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, claiming to target military infrastructure.
The Ukrainian public is suffering, morale is hurting, and Ukrainian President, Volodomy Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for the public to be protected.
This could make Ukraine prone to agree to terms, that has previously been rejected.
Argument against: Putin’s war goals not achieved
Putin continues to demand Ukrainian recognizion of five eastern Ukrainian regions as Russian – a demand, Kyiv has outright rejected.
If Putin agrees to peace before the war goals have been achieved, it could hurt his image and jeapordize his power in Russia.
Argument against: Ukraine would have to cease attacks on Russia
Ukraine has been increasingly succesful in hitting Russian high-value targets with drone attacks like Operation Spiderweb.
A ceasefire would force Ukraine to cease these attacks at a time, where Russia’s military production is starting to struggle.
Argument against: Russia is advancing on the battlefield
Even though Russian losses are through the roof, the Russian military continues to make small advances along the frontline.
If Putin still believes he can actually win the war by shear attrition and brute force, he might be willing to gamble and continue the fighting regardless of U.S. tariffs.
Partial ceasefire – a compromise?
There has been no official suggestions about a deal yet, but rumours of a partial ceasefire is starting to gain momentum.
This would be an agreement, where Russia stops it’s aireal attacks on Ukrainian cities, but continues fighting on the ground.
A bad deal for Ukraine
This, however, would force Ukraine to stop hitting Russian targets with long-range drone attacks, and that makes it a bad deal for Kyiv.
Everyone is waiting
For now, all we can do is wait, as the clock ticks on Donald Trumps deadline.
If nothing new is announced before Friday, Russia will be hit with a 100% tariff from the U.S., and key Russian trading partners such as China and India will be slapped with secondary tariffs, until they stop buying Russian oil.
