Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The figures announced by the Russian military leadership is being described as “very big exaggerations”.
The figures announced by the Russian military leadership is being described as “very big exaggerations”.
What is happening?
Army General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, has found himself in the crosshairs of his country’s own military bloggers after his recent battlefield claims.
What did he claim?
On August 30, he stated that Russian forces had seized 3,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and captured 149 settlements since March 2025.
But rather than praise, the announcement sparked widespread criticism online — even from typically pro-Kremlin sources.
Bloggers cry foul
The reaction from Russian milbloggers was swift and scathing. Several prominent voices accused the general of grossly inflating numbers, with some calling his claims a “very big exaggeration.”
Others demanded transparency, questioning whether Russia’s top brass were being misled — or knowingly spreading misinformation — to maintain a favorable narrative.
“Who’s lying to the Kremlin?”
This criticism reflects growing internal frustration with Russia’s military leadership.
Bloggers openly asked which parts of the command structure are responsible for feeding false data up the chain of command.
Numbers don’t add up
Fact-checking Gerasimov’s claims, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces had gained only around 2,346 square kilometers and captured 130 settlements between March and late August — not the 3,500 km² and 149 settlements he reported.
Kremlin spin efforts intensifying
The timing of Gerasimov’s statement may reflect broader Kremlin efforts to shape domestic and international perceptions.
Faced with a slow-moving front and high casualty counts, Russian leadership appears to be doubling down on narrative control to project strength and momentum — even when the data suggests otherwise.
Modest gains, massive costs
Despite months of fighting, Russia’s advances have been limited and incremental. Analysts have long noted that the pace of progress in Ukraine remains glacial.
Even where gains are made, they are often strategic dead-ends — small pockets of territory taken at enormous human and logistical cost.
Ukrainian reports reveal enormous Russian losses
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces suffered 210,000 casualties in just Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts between January and August 2025.
That breaks down to an average of 26,250 personnel losses per month in those regions alone — a staggering figure for any modern military.
Nationwide casualty toll reaches 290,000
Across the entire front, the Ukrainian military claims that Russian forces lost 290,000 personnel from January through August 2025.
That translates to roughly 36,250 casualties per month, a rate that vastly outpaces the ground gained during the same period.
Independent Russian media corroborates death toll
Russian opposition outlets Meduza and Mediazona offer further evidence of the mounting human cost.
Using data from the Russian Register of Inheritance Cases, they estimate that at least 93,000 Russian soldiers died in 2024 — nearly double the number killed in 2023.
Their projections for 2025 are no less dire.
Predictive models suggest 56,000 deaths in 2025 – so far
According to a forecasting model developed by these independent media outlets, an estimated 56,000 Russian soldiers have already died in the first eight months of 2025.
If this trend continues, the total death toll for the year could surpass even the grim numbers recorded in 2024.
Military progress slower than modern warfare norms
Analysts point out that Russia’s current rate of advance falls far below expectations for modern mechanized warfare.
In conflicts where speed, mobility, and logistics typically drive momentum, Russia’s progress in Ukraine appears rooted in attrition and brute force rather than strategy or efficiency.
Mounting losses put strategic viability in doubt
Ultimately, the scale of Russian casualties compared to territorial gains raises fundamental concerns.
Military success isn’t just about seizing land — it’s about doing so sustainably.
With high attrition, questionable morale, and growing internal criticism, Russia’s battlefield calculus may be more fragile than its leaders are willing to admit.
