Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia has already failed three major campaigns in 2025.
Russia has already failed three major campaigns in 2025.
What is happpening?
President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Russia is preparing two additional large-scale offensives this autumn.
“There were already three of them, and ahead… there are two more heavy offensive campaigns,” Zelensky told Sky News in an interview published on Sept. 16.
Putin’s reported 2025-goal
According to Reuters, Vladimir Putin has privately told U.S. officials his goal is to fully occupy Ukraine’s Donbas region by the close of 2025.
Despite minimal territorial gains, Putin reportedly believes his forces are “winning.”
His confidence contrasts with the data: since November 2022, Russia has gained less than 1% more Ukrainian territory.
Russian Summer push was fast, but ineffective
While Moscow’s 2025 summer offensive marked one of its fastest advances since late 2024, its overall impact remains limited.
Analysts say Russian forces are struggling to convert speed into sustained success.
Zelensky credits this to Ukraine’s resistance and Russia’s growing battlefield losses.
Heavy Russian losses undermine military ambitions
Zelensky pointed to significant Russian casualties and equipment losses as key reasons behind their failed campaigns.
“They lost because there were a large number of casualties among the personnel and a large number of lost equipment,” he said.
These losses, he emphasized, make further territorial gains increasingly difficult for Moscow.
Zelensky: Russia won’t capture the East
In meetings with European leaders and at the White House, Zelensky remained adamant:
“The Russians will not be able to take our east,” he said.
He dismissed Russian claims about seizing new territory as “lies and manipulation,” especially around cities like Sumy.
Russia’s offensive in Sumy Oblast halted
Earlier this year, Russia opened a new front in northeastern Sumy Oblast, capturing several villages in May and June.
However, by early September, Zelensky declared the offensive “completely thwarted.”
He suggested that Kremlin narratives around battlefield success are misleading.
“Putin doesn’t know the truth,” says Zelensky
Zelensky believes Putin is being misled by his own military.
“I believe that the Russians are doing worse than they expected,” he said.
“They are doing much worse than they told Putin. He does not know about it.”
Massive Russian troop losses estimated
Between May 1 and July 9 alone, The Economist estimated Russian troop losses at around 31,000.
Ukraine’s General Staff reports that since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, total Russian losses now approach 1.1 million.
Donbas would take Russia four more years, Zelensky predicts
Zelensky said in August that Russia would need another four years to fully capture Donbas.
This region includes the mostly occupied Luhansk Oblast and the partially held Donetsk Oblast.
His prediction underscores the protracted nature of the conflict and Ukraine’s continued resistance.
Ukraine remains defiant as new threats loom
Despite Russia’s plans for new offensives, Ukraine’s leadership remains defiant and resilient.
Zelensky’s remarks make clear that, while Moscow may be planning more campaigns, Ukrainian forces are prepared.
As the war drags on, both sides appear locked into a grinding, costly struggle for territory and momentum.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
